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Here's an outlook from a confidant of mine who manages 40% of the risk in the fixed income book of a major bond house...

KM
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"Something is not making sense here"

There is a high probability that the US Government will back Fannie and Freddie. OK? But that doubles the debt...

Yet US Treasury rates are barely unchanged today and swap spreads are barely tighter...

The US Dollar not moving enough...

The "Trade" I see here is sell US Treasury rates, receive on UST swap rates in smaller size, and SELL the US dollar....

-The Bond Guy
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)