There’s a decent chance you’ve never heard of the publicly-traded restaurant operator DineEquity (DIN). That said, there’s also a good chance you’ve eaten at Applebee’s or IHOP, which the company both franchises and operates.
DineEquity has faced a “fairly dramatic slowdown” over the past few quarters, says Restaurants analyst Howard Penney in the video above.
While Wall Street currently expects the company to rebound heading into 2017, “I don’t see that happening,” Penney says, suggesting that Wall Street’s projections of 3% to 6% for “system-wide sales” in the coming quarters is too optimistic. “I don’t see that across the space.”
Applebee’s, the company’s largest unit, is “in real trouble,” Penney says. He recounts watching a commercial during this past weekend’s Giants football game, when he saw Applebee’s most recent “buy one, get one free!” promotion. “I’ve never seen this level of extreme discounting in casual dining. You can’t make money when you do this,” he says.
Promotional giveaways like this don’t bode well in the coming quarters. “You’re seeing a concept with sales down -5%, traffic down -7% and, all of a sudden, you see a buy one get one deal. It just reeks of desperation,” Penney says.
Short DIN.