Will OPEC Reach A Deal On Oil Production? Iran & Iraq Are Wildcards

11/23/16 02:36PM EST

Will OPEC Reach A Deal On Oil Production? Iran & Iraq Are Wildcards - mcmonigle on bloomberg

Click the image above to watch. 

Will OPEC actually be able to come up with a deal to cut oil production? This is an important meeting since it will be the first time in two years in which a production policy change is under truly serious consideration. Still Iran and Iraq are the wild cards that could dictate whether this deal actually gets done. Both countries have stated publically it would be in their best interests to remain exempt.

Fresh from a oil-related meetings in Saudi Arabia last week, Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle offered his thoughts in a recent interview on BloombergTV (click the image above to watch). The first question McMonigle was asked: In your meetings in Saudi Arabia, did you get a sense that a deal is likely?

Here's McMonigle's response:

“I didn’t. I expected to get a lot of optimistic talk about a deal and at least privately I got the reverse, pessimism. The most optimistic person that I spoke with gave a deal a 50% chance of it happening and what they explained to me is exactly what happened as a result of these two meetings today in Vienna. It’s that Iran and Iraq continue to be impediments to a deal. They both want to exempt from any kind of production ceiling, freeze or limit. Therefore, it's going to be a very difficult road to some kind of limit as they outlined in the Algiers meeting back in September."

 

(If you'd like to get up to date on the latest developments here's a brief video, "A Primer Ahead of OPEC’s Critical November Meeting")

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