The Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump battle for the Presidency is a lot tighter than most people think. The RealClearPolitics poll aggregate has Clinton leading Trump by +3.2 points.
That's misleading.
In today's Chart of the Day, we show RealClearPolitics' state-by-state electoral vote "No Toss Up" map, which basically cedes a state to a candidate based on who is leading in the polls. Here's the current breakdown...
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Clinton, 272
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Trump, 266
In other words, as Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones points out in today's Early Look:
"Trump does appear to be doing a bit better at the State level than the national polls might suggest. If all the States fall as outlined on the map, then Trump would only have to win 4 more electoral college votes to become President. The most obvious path to do this is New Hampshire, where he only trails Clinton by +0.6 points."
In other words, this race is going to be tight.
Don't count Trump out just yet.
