Early Look: Dangerously Normal

Takeaway: This is a brief (complimentary) excerpt from this morning's Early Look note.

Early Look: Dangerously Normal - jeb el

 

What’s really dangerous are politicians, on both the left and the right, having absolutely no clue about economic cycles. What’s dangerously normal about this cycle is that GDP isn’t going to hang out around 2% forever. It’s already gone to 1%. After that is 0%.

 

Unlike one of my competitors (Hyman) who said (yesterday) “I think the economy has years to run and a recession is years away”, I’m here to remind you that Industrials/Cyclicals are already in a #DoubleDipRecession and a broader slowdown towards 0% is months away.

 

You’ll have to fact check this, but I think I’m one of the few who has proactively called the last 3 US recessions, whereas most of my Old Wall competition hasn’t called one. The establishment of consensus economics is dangerous. That’s not a new normal either.

 

BACK TO THE GLOBAL MACRO GRIND

 

Am I concerned about this? You’re damn right I am. How many times can the “blue chip” economists who have been advising both Republican and Democrat Presidents not only miss the topping process of cycles, but their inevitable rate of change slow-downs?

 

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