“What is right and what is practicable are two different things.“
-James Buchanan
CIRCULAR FIRING SQUAD: A shackle-free Donald Trump is now firing back at his Republican comrades after Paul Ryan and other Republicans made the decision to focus on keeping the House and Senate. Trump’s comments about women from 2005 finally forced Republican hands putting them in a tough spot for the next 27 days and providing Democrats with plenty of campaign fodder. Many House and Senate Republicans are now in the full throes of separation hoping that the Trump effect can be overcome on down ballot races. Yet others with larger and more vocal Trump constituencies are furious that Ryan all but revoked his endorsement putting establishment Republicans in an even more tenuous position in their reelection bids. An unwelcome spotlight will shine on NH Senator Ayotte who just early last week described Trump as a role model - before retracting it.
PRIEBUS PRESSES ON: At least there is some good news for Team Trump as RNC Chair Preibus continues to maintain his support for the Republican candidate. We can’t stress how critical this support is for Trump as his remaining hope for a respectable showing relies heavily on the ground network of the RNC given the lack of campaign infrastructure at Trump Tower. This can also be seen as good news for Republican Congressman and Senators who support Trump as it will ensure that Trump’s most fervent supporters will cast a ballot for them and not stay at home or worse - split their tickets. Unless another October surprise is revealed - and one that is even worse than the Access Hollywood tape - the RNC will stand by their candidate through thick and thin to ensure Republicans are in the best possible position they can muster on November 8.
Our bottom line: The division amongst Republicans will be difficult to overcome on election day - and beyond. While Paul Ryan and Congressional allies do not want to go down with Trump and fritter away their majority in the House and control over the Senate by standing by their nominee, they also risk losing his loyal supporters - especially if Trump’s calls for retribution continue in earnest.
TRUMP’S TRAIL OF TEARS: While Donald Trump’s performance in the debate certainly was an improvement over the first debate, it is unlikely to cause an improvement in his poll numbers. Even though Trump performed better, most polls following the debate show Hillary Clinton as the victor. This only serves to irk the poll-driven Trump and a campaign in disarray as they continue to deal with fallout from yet another very bad week. Surrounded by controversial advisors who loathe Clinton and disdain Ryan and establishment types, don’t expect him to change his message now as it looks as if they plan to scorch the earth in the run towards the finish line.
PLAYING FROM THE SENIOR TEES: Seniors over the years have been a conservative leaning constituency - but it looks as if they’re having a change of heart this election. While many have grown up supporting conservative principles and voting for the party of Reagan, they now view Republicans as the party of insults and are considering switching their loyalties. Clinton holds a two point lead in the latest polling (conducted just before the Billy Bush tape scandal); this is a constituency that Mitt Romney won by 12 points and John McCain by eight. The impact will hit Trump the hardest in a must win swing state like FL where the 65 and over crowd makes up almost 20% of the electorate.
TURKEY TALK: RUSSIAN TELLS OPEC - YOU GO FIRST: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle shares his insights on Putin’s comments on cooperating with OPEC. You can read the piece here
TXT CALL| DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS: Our Senior Defense Policy Head LtGen Emerson “Emo” Gardner USMC ret. provides multifaceted view of Textron’s longer-term prospects. Emo brings unique insight into key TXT programs, like the V-22 and V-280. You can find the slides here and the audio here.
NOTE: We’re traveling for the next few days and will return on Friday.
