CLIENT TALKING POINTS
GBP/USD
At $1.24 this morning after dropping -4.2% last week, taking the YTD crash to -15.6% YTD has driven the FTSE up (+2.1% last wk to +12.8% YTD) and 10yr UK Gilt Yield straight back up to 1.00% (+3bps this am) on inflation concerns (which real people who get paid in Burning Pounds get in exchange for stock market inflation).
Europe
Meanwhile doesn’t get paid on an evisceration of the British Pound; Spanish Stocks were -1.8% last week to -9.8% YTD and are leading losers again this morning alongside Italian stocks – IBEX and MIB are -28% and -32% from their 2015 Global Equity Bubble highs.
Industrials
Both Honeywell (HON) and PPG guided down on Friday and both stocks were down big, on big volume – we reviewed why we think there’s going to be a double-dip recession in most things cyclicals/industrials on our Q4 Macro Themes Call – if you’d like the replay of the video/call, let us know (Industrials, XLI -1.4% last wk and signaling bearish TREND @Hedgeye).
TOP LONG IDEAS
GLD
Industrial production, capital goods orders, and factory orders continue to look recessionary. Specifically, all three series have experienced negative growth for the longest period ever without a recession.
VYM
Growth Slowing...
TLT
Growth Slowing...
Asset Allocation
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/9/16 | 48% | 8% | 4% | 15% | 25% | 0% |
| 10/10/16 | 44% | 9% | 4% | 16% | 27% | 0% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/9/16 | 48% | 24% | 12% | 45% | 76% | 0% |
| 10/10/16 | 44% | 27% | 12% | 48% | 82% | 0% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
VIDEO: Why Mainstream Media Is Wrong About The Jobs Report app.hedgeye.com/archives/54405
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If you aren’t going all the way, why go at all?”
-Joe Namath
STAT OF THE DAY
Ezekiel Elliot leads the NFL in rushing with 546 yards, he is a rookie.
