• It's Here!

    Etf Pro

    Get the big financial market moves right, bullish or bearish with Hedgeye’s ETF Pro.

  • It's Coming...


    Identify global risks and opportunities with essential macro intel using Hedgeye’s Market Edges.

CHART(S) OF THE DAY: Slowing Jobs Growth = Slowing U.S. Economy - CoD1

U.S. Jobs growth slows again...

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 156,000 in September. The unemployment rate rose to 5.0%. But no worries. It's all good right?

  • "Payrolls in U.S. rise as more Americans go back to work," Bloomberg writes.
  • "The economy created 156,000 new jobs in September, another solid gain in employment," writes MarketWatch.

Once again we disagree with mainstream media which is missing the mark. 

As we wrote yesterday, jobs market growth (year-over-year) continues to fall off the 2015 cycle peak of 2.3% (see chart below). Today's year-over-year growth came in at 1.7%. Simply put: #EmploymentSlowing...

What does this mean for U.S. GDP? It ain't good. Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake describes the Chart of the Day (see above) in this morning's Early Look (our morning newsletter to subscribers):

"I like today’s Chart of the Day because it’s simple, intuitively tractable and cuts through any narrative fallacy.  It’s just the data, alone and self-contained.


Simply – and taking a labor centric view of growth - if you have negative second derivative trends in the number of people working, the number of hours those people work each week and in how productive that collective labor force is …. you can’t get a positive second derivative trend in output."


It's simple really...

#EmploymentSlowing = #GrowthSlowing

CHART(S) OF THE DAY: Slowing Jobs Growth = Slowing U.S. Economy - nfp growth