Here we go again.
The IMF is downgrading its estimates for global growth yet again. Below is a quick rundown of the year-end 2016 growth estimate revisions:
- Advanced Economies, 1.6% versus 1.8% estimate in July;
- U.S., 1.6% versus 2.2% in July;
- France, 1.3% versus 1.5% in July;
That's a tiny taste.
(Take a look at the chart below with IMF growth downgrades highlighted in yellow.)
Consider Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, comments:
Growth “has been too low for too long, and in many countries its benefits have reached too few — with political repercussions that are likely to depress global growth further.”
This story isn't new...
We've been warning about #LowerForLonger (rates) and #SlowerForLonger (growth) for the better part of two years. Hedgye Demography sector head Neil Howe makes an interesting point about the IMF in a recent post:
"In fact, over the past decade, these highly-compensated, D.C.-based bureaucrats have consistently chosen to revise their predictions downward. Back in 2010, when the IMF took its first stab at growth figures for 2015, the estimate (+4.6 percent) came in at nearly double the final figure."
The World Bank's track record isn't so hot either, Howe writes.