IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again)

Takeaway: IMF says, growth "has been too low for too long" ... #SlowerForLonger has been our Macro team's call for the better part of two years.

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - growth cartoon 05.24.2016

Here we go again.

The IMF is downgrading its estimates for global growth yet again. Below is a quick rundown of the year-end 2016 growth estimate revisions:

  • Advanced Economies, 1.6% versus 1.8% estimate in July;
  • U.S., 1.6% versus 2.2% in July;
  • France, 1.3% versus 1.5% in July;

That's a tiny taste.

(Take a look at the chart below with IMF growth downgrades highlighted in yellow.)

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - IMF growth table

Consider Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, comments:

Growth “has been too low for too long, and in many countries its benefits have reached too few — with political repercussions that are likely to depress global growth further.”

Sound familiar?

This story isn't new...

We've been warning about #LowerForLonger (rates) and #SlowerForLonger (growth) for the better part of two years. Hedgye Demography sector head Neil Howe makes an interesting point about the IMF in a recent post:

"In fact, over the past decade, these highly-compensated, D.C.-based bureaucrats have consistently chosen to revise their predictions downward. Back in 2010, when the IMF took its first stab at growth figures for 2015, the estimate (+4.6 percent) came in at nearly double the final figure." 

 

The World Bank's track record isn't so hot either, Howe writes.

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - chart 4

Why do we even listen to these bureaucrats?