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IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again)

Takeaway: IMF says, growth "has been too low for too long" ... #SlowerForLonger has been our Macro team's call for the better part of two years.

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - growth cartoon 05.24.2016

Here we go again.

 

The IMF is downgrading its estimates for global growth yet again. Below is a quick rundown of the year-end 2016 growth estimate revisions:

 

  • Advanced Economies, 1.6% versus 1.8% estimate in July;
  • U.S., 1.6% versus 2.2% in July;
  • France, 1.3% versus 1.5% in July;

That's a tiny taste.

(Take a look at the chart below with IMF growth downgrades highlighted in yellow.)

 

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - IMF growth table

 

Consider Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF's chief economist, comments:

 

Growth “has been too low for too long, and in many countries its benefits have reached too few — with political repercussions that are likely to depress global growth further.”

 

Sound familiar?

This story isn't new...

 

We've been warning about #LowerForLonger (rates) and #SlowerForLonger (growth) for the better part of two years. Hedgye Demography sector head Neil Howe makes an interesting point about the IMF in a recent post:

 

"In fact, over the past decade, these highly-compensated, D.C.-based bureaucrats have consistently chosen to revise their predictions downward. Back in 2010, when the IMF took its first stab at growth figures for 2015, the estimate (+4.6 percent) came in at nearly double the final figure." 

 

The World Bank's track record isn't so hot either, Howe writes.

 

IMF Outlook: Taking The Hatchet To Global Growth Estimates (Again) - chart 4

Why do we even listen to these bureaucrats?

 

 


PREMIUM INSIGHT

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Higher Lows for Stock Fund Flows

[UNLOCKED] Fund Flow Survey | Higher Lows for Stock Fund Flows - dollar pic

This is a complimentary research note originally published last week by our Financials team. For more info on our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com


Buy Gold

Takeaway: Rates ↑, Dollar ↑, Gold ↓ ... buy more Gold

Buy Gold - Gold cartoon 08.11.2016

This morning's market message appears to be buy more Gold.

 

That’s been the playbook all year long. I see no reason to change that this morning with both the Pound and Yen signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold vs. a US Dollar that should fade on another rate of change slowing in non-farm payrolls on Friday.

 

fade central planners...

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.

 

In case the message above isn't clear, take a look at this 37-second video below.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.37%

CHART OF THE DAY | Central Planning 101: Devalue Your Currency, Relentlessly

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"I couldn’t make this up if I tried, but…

 

A) A -13.2% YTD crash in GBP/USD to $1.27 has driven

B) A +13.3% rip to fresh YTD highs in the FTSE

 

“So”, you’re saying that, “because stocks are up”, UK economy is ripping, eh? Lol. If you didn’t know how to get your stock market “up” as the economy is traversing its peak cycle compares, now you know. Devalue your currency, relentlessly."

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Central Planning 101: Devalue Your Currency, Relentlessly - El COD 100416


Steiner: Deutsche Bank’s $50 Trillion Problem

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner explains why Deutsche Bank is a massive financial market risk that’s underappreciated by investors.


2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’

Takeaway: Fundamental production data suggests OPEC is winning the longevity and market share story, so why now on a cut?

Editor’s Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle and Commodity analyst Ben Ryan. For more information about our research contact sales@hedgeye.com.

 

2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’ - OPEC cartoon 08.24.2016

 

The constant newsiness and lack of credibility around a speculated production freeze has been well covered by our energy policy analyst, Joe McMonigle. Below we raise two important points.

With regard to a quota revision in the near-term:

 

  • First, a topic we’ve harped on before - OPEC quotas have had no bearing on actual production levels historically – the only impact has been a short-term spot price impact.
  • The fundamental story at play is one that questions the timing of speculated revision in quotas – why would OPEC freeze production now that they’re winning the global market share game for the first time in a long time? Saudi Arabia has alluded to U.S. Shale being a barometer for forward-looking policy.

 

2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’ - opec v shale

 

**For more, watch McMonigle discuss recent OPEC developments in the video, "OPEC’s ‘Risky Gambit’ (What The Media Totally Missed)."

 


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