2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’

Takeaway: Fundamental production data suggests OPEC is winning the longevity and market share story, so why now on a cut?

Editor’s Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle and Commodity analyst Ben Ryan. For more information about our research contact


2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’ - OPEC cartoon 08.24.2016


The constant newsiness and lack of credibility around a speculated production freeze has been well covered by our energy policy analyst, Joe McMonigle. Below we raise two important points.

With regard to a quota revision in the near-term:


  • First, a topic we’ve harped on before - OPEC quotas have had no bearing on actual production levels historically – the only impact has been a short-term spot price impact.
  • The fundamental story at play is one that questions the timing of speculated revision in quotas – why would OPEC freeze production now that they’re winning the global market share game for the first time in a long time? Saudi Arabia has alluded to U.S. Shale being a barometer for forward-looking policy.


2 Reasons Why OPEC Oil Freeze ‘Lacks Credibility’ - opec v shale


**For more, watch McMonigle discuss recent OPEC developments in the video, "OPEC’s ‘Risky Gambit’ (What The Media Totally Missed)."


McMonigle: A Lot of Holes in OPEC Deal

Joe McMonigle, Senior Energy Policy Analyst at Hedgeye Potomac Research recently joined Bloomberg’s Danielle Bochove to discuss what’s next after OPEC’s production deal.

Click below to watch.

McMonigle: A Lot of Holes in OPEC Deal - z mcm 1

Speaker Series Call | "Trumping" Private Equity - Will Carried Interest Tax Policy Change?

Takeaway: We will discuss the probability of a tax law change in private equity. Related Tickers include BX, KKR, APO, OZM, FIG, OAK, CG.

Speaker Series Call | "Trumping" Private Equity - Will Carried Interest Tax Policy Change? - Slide1


Our Financials team is hosting a call with Mr. Jason Mulvihill, General Counsel of the American Investment Council today at 1 pm EST to discuss the topic of carried interest treatment in the private equity industry. 


The discussion will cover: 

  • A review of the current tax treatment of carried interest for investors and alternative asset managers. How did the current tax regime come about and what is the actual flow through to the alternative asset managers. 
  • Both Trump and Clinton are saber rattling for adjusting the status quo. What do these proposals look like and why is the PE industry a target? 
  • What is the likelihood of reform and what does the Congressional map look like for the issue should tax reform legislation proceed? 
  • What is the probability of a change in the current treatment and if quashed, is this issue off the table for the incoming administration?  

The American Investment Council (AIC) is an advocacy, communications and resource organization established to advance access to capital, job creation, retirement security, innovation and economic growth by promoting responsible long-term investment.  The AIC develops, analyzes and distributes information about the private investment industry and its contributions to the long-term growth of the U.S. and global economy. The AIC’s members are the world’s leading private equity and growth capital firms united by their commitment to growing and strengthening the businesses in which they invest. For further information about the AIC and its members, please visit


Jason Mulvihill currently serves as General Counsel for the American Investment Council. As General Counsel, Mulvihill has primary responsibility for legislative and regulatory matters considered by the AIC. He oversees the AIC’s General Counsels’ Committee and the Chief Compliance Officers’ Working Group.   Before joining the AIC, Mulvihill served  as Legislative Director and Chief Counsel for Senator John Ensign (R-NV).  In this capacity, Mulvihill he developed and secured enactment of cancellation of debt income legislation. Mulvihill also helped to prevent changes in the tax treatment of carried interest and publicly traded partnerships.  Before working on Capitol Hill, Mulvihill was an Associate at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom in Washington, D.C., practicing antitrust law.  Mulvihill graduated summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa from Georgetown University, and received his law degree from Columbia University Law School. 


Related Tickers: BX, KKR, APO, OZM, FIG, OAK, CG.


CALL DETAILS - Today Monday, October 3rd at 1 p.m. EST


Email for access and more information on our institutional research.


Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 


Joshua Steiner, CFA



Patrick Staudt, CFA


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Pounded! Why The UK's Super Wealthy Love Currency Devaluation

Takeaway: The U.K.'s continued pound devaluation is fantastic for the super wealthy but obviously horrible for poor people.

Pounded! Why The UK's Super Wealthy Love Currency Devaluation - Pound cartoon 07.05.2016


Teresa May throws a timeline on the tape (Brexit negotiations by Q1 2017) and London loves it...


  • FTSE ramps +1.1% to a new high (+11.6% YTD, doubling the SPX return)
  • Pound gets devalued to a fresh new low of $1.28.


(Pound is signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold within a $1.28-1.32 range.)


That's fantastic for the wealthy, but... 


It’s obviously horrible for the poor people (i.e. the 90% or more of humans who don’t own “stocks”) who continue to lose the purchasing power of their hard earned currency. But who really cares about them anymore anyway?


And I mean that with some serious sadness in my heart. 



Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.

CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Believe In (OPEC/Fed) Centrally-Planned Markets?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... There are obviously many reasons (some secular, some cyclical) but the simplest one is that it’s a lot easier to see #GrowthSlowing to its cycle low than it is to believe that central market plans (OPEC, Fed, Banks, etc.) can keep markets believing in an asset inflated tomorrow."


CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Believe In (OPEC/Fed) Centrally-Planned Markets? - 10.03.16 EL Chart


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