McMonigle: A Lot of Holes in OPEC Deal

Joe McMonigle, Senior Energy Policy Analyst at Hedgeye Potomac Research recently joined Bloomberg’s Danielle Bochove to discuss what’s next after OPEC’s production deal.

Click below to watch.

McMonigle: A Lot of Holes in OPEC Deal - z mcm 1

Speaker Series Call | "Trumping" Private Equity - Will Carried Interest Tax Policy Change?

Takeaway: We will discuss the probability of a tax law change in private equity. Related Tickers include BX, KKR, APO, OZM, FIG, OAK, CG.

Speaker Series Call | "Trumping" Private Equity - Will Carried Interest Tax Policy Change? - Slide1


Our Financials team is hosting a call with Mr. Jason Mulvihill, General Counsel of the American Investment Council today at 1 pm EST to discuss the topic of carried interest treatment in the private equity industry. 


The discussion will cover: 

  • A review of the current tax treatment of carried interest for investors and alternative asset managers. How did the current tax regime come about and what is the actual flow through to the alternative asset managers. 
  • Both Trump and Clinton are saber rattling for adjusting the status quo. What do these proposals look like and why is the PE industry a target? 
  • What is the likelihood of reform and what does the Congressional map look like for the issue should tax reform legislation proceed? 
  • What is the probability of a change in the current treatment and if quashed, is this issue off the table for the incoming administration?  

The American Investment Council (AIC) is an advocacy, communications and resource organization established to advance access to capital, job creation, retirement security, innovation and economic growth by promoting responsible long-term investment.  The AIC develops, analyzes and distributes information about the private investment industry and its contributions to the long-term growth of the U.S. and global economy. The AIC’s members are the world’s leading private equity and growth capital firms united by their commitment to growing and strengthening the businesses in which they invest. For further information about the AIC and its members, please visit


Jason Mulvihill currently serves as General Counsel for the American Investment Council. As General Counsel, Mulvihill has primary responsibility for legislative and regulatory matters considered by the AIC. He oversees the AIC’s General Counsels’ Committee and the Chief Compliance Officers’ Working Group.   Before joining the AIC, Mulvihill served  as Legislative Director and Chief Counsel for Senator John Ensign (R-NV).  In this capacity, Mulvihill he developed and secured enactment of cancellation of debt income legislation. Mulvihill also helped to prevent changes in the tax treatment of carried interest and publicly traded partnerships.  Before working on Capitol Hill, Mulvihill was an Associate at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom in Washington, D.C., practicing antitrust law.  Mulvihill graduated summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa from Georgetown University, and received his law degree from Columbia University Law School. 


Related Tickers: BX, KKR, APO, OZM, FIG, OAK, CG.


CALL DETAILS - Today Monday, October 3rd at 1 p.m. EST


Email for access and more information on our institutional research.


Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 


Joshua Steiner, CFA



Patrick Staudt, CFA


Pounded! Why The UK's Super Wealthy Love Currency Devaluation

Takeaway: The U.K.'s continued pound devaluation is fantastic for the super wealthy but obviously horrible for poor people.

Pounded! Why The UK's Super Wealthy Love Currency Devaluation - Pound cartoon 07.05.2016


Teresa May throws a timeline on the tape (Brexit negotiations by Q1 2017) and London loves it...


  • FTSE ramps +1.1% to a new high (+11.6% YTD, doubling the SPX return)
  • Pound gets devalued to a fresh new low of $1.28.


(Pound is signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold within a $1.28-1.32 range.)


That's fantastic for the wealthy, but... 


It’s obviously horrible for the poor people (i.e. the 90% or more of humans who don’t own “stocks”) who continue to lose the purchasing power of their hard earned currency. But who really cares about them anymore anyway?


And I mean that with some serious sadness in my heart. 



Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.

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CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Believe In (OPEC/Fed) Centrally-Planned Markets?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... There are obviously many reasons (some secular, some cyclical) but the simplest one is that it’s a lot easier to see #GrowthSlowing to its cycle low than it is to believe that central market plans (OPEC, Fed, Banks, etc.) can keep markets believing in an asset inflated tomorrow."


CHART OF THE DAY: Do You Believe In (OPEC/Fed) Centrally-Planned Markets? - 10.03.16 EL Chart

REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.


Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)




1. ‘Macro Mentoring’ With Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough : Session 4 (10/1/2016)



In this week’s edition of ‘Macro Mentoring’, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough details where we are in the U.S. economic cycle, describes how he uses rate of change to analyze macro data and explains how his process allows him to front-run the emotion of crowds. 


2. An Animated Healthcare Outlook (3 Shorts, 1 Long) (9/30/2016)



In this animated video, Hedgeye Healthcare analyst Andrew Freedman walks through our outlook for the Hospital EHR (“electronic health record”) market with insights on companies such as Epic Systems Corporation, athenahealth (ATHN), Cerner Corp (CERN), Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX), and Computer Programs & Systems (CPSI).


3. Keith McCullough Reveals One Of Our Favorite Market Calls! (9/30/2016)



In case you missed it. Hedgeye Risk-Manager-In-Chief Keith McCullough really likes this… like a lot. Like a lot, a lot.



4. Peterson: How Investor Emotion Influences Oil Prices (9/30/2016)



Dr. Richard Peterson, a board-certified psychiatrist and CEO of MarketPsych, is among the foremost leaders in the area of applied behavioral finance. In this excerpt from that broader interview with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Peterson explains how his algorithm has been “almost 100% accurate in catching every major monthly move.” He explains why “people talking their book” and “investor chatter” influences where oil prices are headed in the future.


5. McMonigle: OPEC’s ‘Risky Gambit’ (What The Media Totally Missed) (9/29/2016)



In this brief HedgeyeTV video presentation, Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle discusses the underappreciated risks embedded in recent OPEC oil production speculation.


6. REPLAY: Demographer Neil Howe & Daryl Jones on The End of Monetary Policy? (9/29/2016)



In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses whether central bank monetary policy has finally reached its limits. Howe explains the broader implications for investors.


Click here to read Howe's associated About Everything written piece. 


7. Peterson: How to Successfully Trade Sentiment (9/28/2016)



Behavioral finance expert Dr. Richard Peterson, a board-certified psychiatrist and CEO of MarketPsych, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this edition of Real Conversations. An expert on financial market psychology, Peterson discusses how to potentially time stock market turns by analyzing investor behavior and social media. His firm produces sentiment and macroeconomic indices derived from language analysis of global news and social media. His latest book Trading on Sentiment digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it.


8. UberPOOL: The Future Of Public Transportation (& WAB Short Call Catalyst)? (9/27/2016)



Is uberPOOL a major technological event that will alter public transportation forever? And did Wabtec (WAB) just pay a premium to acquire Faiveley ahead of this revolutionary new change? Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver discussing uberPOOL and its implications for his WAB short call.


Click here to read it.


9. Understanding ‘The Biggest Number In All Of Retail’ (In 30 Seconds Or Less) (9/27/16) 



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye Retail analyst Alec Richards explains the investing implications behind “the biggest number in all of retail.”


10. Nike: What Investors Are Missing & Why We’re Bullish (9/26/2016)



In this brief excerpt from a HedgeyeTV video presentation, our Retail team explains why Nike remains a Best Idea Long heading into tomorrow’s earnings report. Analysts Brian McGough and Alexander Richards discuss an underappreciated bullish catalyst.


11. Van Sciver: My Favorite Short Right Now Is… (9/26/2016)



In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver responds to a subscriber’s question about his favorite short in the sector.


Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.