((Crickets)) In My Inbox

Takeaway: If you get growth right (like we have), you'll get the bond market right.

((Crickets)) In My Inbox - Yield cartoon 06.14.2016


My inbox went from chock-full of “Why rates are gonna rip!” email (2-4 weeks ago) to crickets as the entire complex of long-term global yields falls alongside GDP growth expectations.


Take a look:


  • UST 10yr 1.54%
  • Swiss 10yr -0.60%
  • 10yr Bund -0.16%;
  • even Dutch 10s go negative this am -3bps to -0.03%

((Crickets)) In My Inbox - z tlt


In related news, it's still rainbows and puppy dogs for Old Wall Consensus and its media enablers.


We'll stick with what's working.

Currency Wars: Who Wins, Who Loses & What To Buy

Takeaway: As Europe heads into protracted recession, Gold will be the biggest winner.

Currency Wars: Who Wins, Who Loses & What To Buy - currency wars large  1


Last day of the quarter is a good one to reiterate that one of our Top 3 Macro Themes for Q3 and beyond remains #EuropeImploding – a protracted recession in the South of Europe looks like a high probability outcome; it should manifest in reported GDP throughout 2017 – Draghi and European Banks will have to react in kind.


Since it’s going to be one of the big winners of the Currency War (devalued currencies and the credibility of central bankers lose), Gold will end the month and quarter on a strong note, +0.5% = +25.1% year-to-date with an immediate-term risk range of $1311-1352/oz.



Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.

CHART OF THE DAY: Is The Eurozone Entering Its Modern Dark Age?

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (slide 88 of our current Macro Themes deck), private sector deleveraging should continue as the Eurozone economy ages alongside a projected contraction in organic demand for as far as the eye can see.


Put another way, the Eurozone is entering its modern dark age of demand (population growth of the 35-54 yr old population going more negative, at an accelerating rate). And there isn’t a damn thing a central-market-planner can do to stop that."


CHART OF THE DAY: Is The Eurozone Entering Its Modern Dark Age? - 09.30.16 EL Chart


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Peterson: How Investor Emotion Influences Oil Prices

Dr. Richard Peterson, a board-certified psychiatrist and CEO of MarketPsych, is among the foremost leaders in the area of applied behavioral finance. His team has developed an algorithm that crunches data from more than 2,000 media outlets and 800 social media sites to interpret investor sentiment and suggest trading opportunities. Based on that data, they put together a market-neutral social media-based hedge fund that beat the S&P 500 by more than twenty-four percent—through the 2008 financial crisis.


In this excerpt from that broader interview with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, Peterson explains how his algorithm has been “almost 100% accurate in catching every major monthly move” in oil prices. He explains why “people talking their book” and “investor chatter” influences where oil prices are headed in the future. Given Peterson’s unique distinctions as psychiatrist and market practitioner, his insights are always thought-provoking. It’s must-see TV for investors looking to become more disciplined traders.


Want more?


Watch this edition of “Real Conversations” in its entirety below.

McMonigle: OPEC’s ‘Risky Gambit’ (What The Media Totally Missed)

In this brief HedgeyeTV video presentation, Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle discusses the underappreciated risks embedded in recent OPEC oil production speculation. 

Cartoon of the Day: Draghi's Ducks

Cartoon of the Day: Draghi's Ducks - Draghi DAX cartoon 09.29.2016

Fears over Deutsche Bank's financial health have moved into the German political arena as Berlin was forced to deny it was preparing a rescue and ECB head honcho Mario Draghi was grilled by the Bundestag over the future of the bank.

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