PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK
STATES OF PLAY
Following a busy week that included avoiding a government shutdown, the first presidential debate, and a packed campaign schedule, we shift our focus to Iowa, the remaining toss-up state in our series - as well as Nebraska and Maine, the proportional states won by Congressional district. Though the states hold a relatively low number of Electoral College votes at 15, the importance of the three comes down to their historic play in past elections. In an extremely tight race, the fact that Nebraska and Maine "split" their votes could be vital to the final outcome on November 8.
IOWA
Iowa has six electoral votes, which is around 1% of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and more than 2% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, Iowa cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76% of the time. In that same time frame, Iowa supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates. However, the state has leaned Democratic in presidential elections between 2000 and 2012.
Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton spent the end of last week in Iowa, a key battleground state where polls show Trump consistently holding a single-digit lead over Clinton. Although the state fits right in Trump’s demographic sweet spot, Clinton has done well, boasting competitive numbers and could benefit from an well-established ground game. Keep in mind, early voting started in the state last week as well and Democrats should have an edge on that front with higher registration numbers.
NEBRASKA
Nebraska has five electoral votes, which is almost 1% of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and around 2% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Nebraska is one of two states that awards its electoral votes proportionally by Congressional district.
Between 1900 and 2012, Nebraska cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 65% of the time. In that same time frame, Nebraska supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 76% to 24%, making it one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. Nebraska awarded all of its electoral votes to Republican candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012 except for 2008, when Barack Obama won the state's second congressional district. This was the first time that Nebraska had ever split its electoral votes.
Trump leads polls in Nebraska by over 20%, so the state hasn’t been much of a focus for either campaign as of late. We expect Trump to carry all five votes come November 8th.
MAINE
Maine has four electoral votes, which is almost 1% of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and around 2% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. In addition to Nebraska, Maine is the only other state that awards its electoral votes proportionally.
Between 1900 and 2012, Maine cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 62% of the time, and in that same time frame, the state supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 70% to 30%. Maine, however, awarded all of its electoral votes to Democratic candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012.
Clinton currently holds single digit leads in the polls in Maine and there is no reason to believe that the state will swing red for the first time since 1988. We could, however, see Trump pick up an electoral vote from Maine’s second district where polls show he has a large lead. This would be the first time in Maine’s electoral history that the state splits.
