Behavioral finance expert Dr. Richard Peterson, a board-certified psychiatrist and CEO of MarketPsych, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this edition of Real Conversations. An expert on financial market psychology, Peterson discusses how to potentially time stock market turns by analyzing investor behavior and social media. His firm produces sentiment and macroeconomic indices derived from language analysis of global news and social media. His latest book Trading on Sentiment digs underneath technicals and fundamentals to explain the primary mover of market prices - the global information flow and how investors react to it.
"US GDP is going to be reported tomorrow and it’s closer to 1% y/y than it’s been all year," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in this morning's Early Look note. U.S. #GrowthSlowing continues.
Takeaway: Let's wait and see the details about this OPEC oil production "freeze."
Oil is up 5% today... WHY?
According to Reuters' two OPEC sources, the organization:
"... Agreed on Wednesday to reduce its oil output to 32.5 million bpd from the current production levels of around 33.24 million bpd. The producing group will agree concrete levels of production by each country at its next formal meeting in November, the sources said.
One source also said that once production targets were reached, OPEC would reach out to non-OPEC producers for cooperation."
Our Quick Take?
Here's Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle who has been spot-on about all the OPEC oil production "freeze" rumors all year.
Here's McMonigle's recent take on an OPEC "freeze" from earlier this month.
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Takeaway: Vancouver home sales are still getting slammed, with the Y/Y growth rate further deteriorating to -26% in September from -18.9% in August
Earlier this week Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner released his proprietary Hedgeye Canada Tracker to keep tabs on what he sees as an “ongoing housing bubble” in the economy.
As Bloomberg reported earlier this month:
“A tax on foreign homebuyers in Vancouver cut luxury purchases in Canada’s priciest housing market by more than half last month, according to a brokerage report. Meanwhile, high-end sales in Toronto surged.
Transactions in Vancouver of at least C$1 million ($759,000) slid 65 percent from a year earlier to 95 units in August, the month that a 15 percent transfer tax on deals by non-Canadian homebuyers took effect, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. At the same time, luxury-home sales in Toronto and its suburbs doubled to 1,459 units, the high-end brokerage said.”
In particular Steiner’s Canada Tracker is picking up a more broad-based slowdown in Vancouver’s housing market.
Here’s Steiner’s analysis:
“Vancouver home sales are still getting slammed, with the Y/Y growth rate further deteriorating to -26% in September from -18.9% in August… Teranet data still shows Vancouver home price growth accelerating, to 24% YoY. However, the deteriorating average home sale price from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver in the chart below makes more sense to us, given the disaster that home sales in the region have become.”
Takeaway: Here's our take on some of today's top financial stories.
San Francisco Fed head John Williams kicked off a loaded week of central planning with this gem:
"It is getting harder and harder to justify interest rates being so incredibly low given where the U.S. economy is and where it is going. I would support an interest rate increase. I think that the economy can handle that. I don’t think that would stall, slow or derail the economic expansion."
The sentiment was reiterated by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in today's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee:
OUR TAKE: The Fed is obscuring reality for convenient (false) narratives about the U.S. economy. The data will win.
2. European Central Bank
This is the latest nugget from ECB President Mario Draghi in a speech to German Parliament today:
OUR TAKE: A more clear summation of what Draghi actually meant would be: "Yes, ECB policies have gouged European bank profitability but some banks are still profitable." Not exactly a resounding defense of the ECB's unprecendented policies.
3. Bank of japan
In BoJ Govenor Haruhiko Kuroda's first speech since the central bank's radical new proposals last week, he said the BoJ stood "ready to use every available tool to achieve its 2% inflation target." Kuroda continued, "There is no better opportunity than now to completely get out of deflation. Talking about the limits of monetary policy does not help at all."
In case you missed it, last week, the BoJ said it would try to keep 10-year JGB yields around 0%, instating what is effectively a ceiling on yields. The IMF gave the policy shift the thumbs up. “The change in the framework has made it clear that there are still tools available that allow monetary policy to be as accommodative as possible for the future and raise inflation expectations,” Luc Everaert, the IMF's chief for Japan, said in an interview in Tokyo on Monday. “We support it and we also find that the framework allows monetary easing to be more sustainable and more effective. New measures allow more flexibility and they can be kept in place for a longer time.”
OUR TAKE: We disagree with the IMF's assessment. The BoJ cannot pull the country out of its protracted multi-decade malaise. Click here to read what Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale has to say about the BoJ's "stench of desperation."
4. Bank of England
Finally, a bit of truth from a central banker. Britain is transitioning from “strong growth to something less than that,” Bank of England governor Mark Carney said earlier today, as individuals and businesses struggle with Brexit-related uncertainty.
“We had expected in August that the economy would slow materially during the second half of this year, relative to relatively strong growth in the first half of this year,” Mr Carney said in an interview with Herald Scotland. “Broad brush, that is what we are seeing.
OUR TAKE: From Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough...
Editor's Note: Below is a Hedgeye Guest Contributor research note written by Josh Crumb for Goldmoney Insights. Crumb is a co-founder of Goldmoney Inc. and its Chief Strategy Officer. He was previously an Executive Director at Goldman Sachs - the Senior Metals Strategist in the Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Division in London. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.
Inverted Asymmetry - Gold Price Outlook
By Josh Crumb
Using our proprietary real rate, energy proof of value- model as a guide, we find that, despite an already impressive year to date performance:
- The USD gold price has less downside risk from current levels than commonly perceived, with skewed upside risk;
- Market participants often wrongly analyze gold as a ‘flow commodity’ and appear overly focused on central bank guidance of nominal rate paths – just one of three important metrics – and therefore still misunderstand the key drivers of this ongoing “money stock” rerating;
- Given current inflation and real interest rate expectations, data and policy surprises present much more upside than downside risk for gold from current levels; and
- For gold to fall back below $1,100/toz again, the market would need a somewhat paradoxical environment of collapsing energy prices yet rising inflation, with the FED hiking interest rates.
In this semi-annual outlook report, we present a hypothesis to explain this bias; we apply our unique price framework to explain price cycle inflection points in support of our alternative thesis; and we analyze the real upside and downside risks when viewing gold as an alternative money stock rather than as a flow commodity.
Ultimately, we believe that the market is still in the midst of an ongoing rerating of gold vs fiat currencies in this age of extraordinary monetary experiments, and that it will become increasingly clear that objective data are becoming detached from the reflexive manipulative-function of central bank forward guidance.
In this environment, gold should be owned and accumulated.
In our view, too many investors have been waiting all year for a ‘$100’ pull back and better entry point, but, in this context, nearly every surprise or shock bringing new information to the market presents a downside risk for fiat currencies relative to gold, especially at the zero-bound where the nominal cost of carrying currency risk is higher than the carry for gold.
However, despite our confidence from the underlying data, a biased consensus outlook still projects downside asymmetry as we approach the elusive point of FED rate normalization. The objective reality is that this asymmetry is inverted, where there is little downside price risk relative to significant upside.
In upcoming reports, we will dive further into the outlook for key variables, including interest rates, inflation expectations, and forward energy prices; however, in this report, we simply present a two-way sensitivity model to show the asymmetry of price risk from current levels.
Upside price risk for gold as a money ‘stock’ is driven by the downside risk in the value of fiat currency; expectations for lower year-over-year gold ‘flow’ are nearly irrelevant to prices.
Market participants often describe the supply and demand outlook for gold as they would for oil or grains, or flow commodities. And with their marginal demand framework, it may appear that a fall in near-term demand for this ‘speculative commodity’ presents a limitless floor to prices. Or as one trader put it:
“Gold has a big door in and little door out when fearful investors and gold bugs are the primary demand for this speculative asset [a ‘useless commodity’ without income or yield], and there is always infinite ETF supply to be dumped onto markets when demand turns and the market goes ‘no bid’”.
And it’s no surprise, having worked as senior commodity analysts at a bulge-bracket Wall Street institution, that this is exactly how the big Wall Street banks and the mainstream financial media therefore analyze and report on the gold price outlook.
This perception is emboldened as gold is relegated to the commodity desks, to be analyzed for year over year changes in supply and (gold bug driven) demand flow, further reinforcing the perception of a perpetual ‘no bid’ risk and unlimited inventories against expanding supply.
This is the perceived asymmetry of gold having unlimited downside and an irrational and uncertain upside, driven only by fear or greed, chasing prices higher as a bubble asset or ‘Giffen Good’ (for which higher prices create more demand).
We believe this consensus analytical framework is wrong and largely irrelevant and can be falsified by both data and logic.
Instead, it is our view that the approximately $8 trillion dollars-worth of global gold inventory is actually being valued and demanded by its holders as an alternative yet permanent money stock with potential advantages to fiat currency-based savings depending on the outlook for real yields in one’s base saving currency. Gold is simply a liquid real-asset with no time decay, no real cost of carry and no counter-party risk, yet it is scarce, has great elemental utility and an energy-intensive replacement cost.
So what if the greater value-volatility in the market price lies in the debt-based measuring systems sitting in the denominator, the far from permanent or standard units of fiat currency value? In our view, this is the major flaw in the consensus analysis of gold, the bias to project fiat currency as a universal, stable, and standard measurement against the uncertain animal spirits of gold commodity demand.
This false starting point is also the primary reason that the Wall Street sell-side analyst consensus has missed basically every major price inflection point of the past decade. It is this misunderstanding and misreporting of gold as a short term flow commodity like oil or grains (useful for consumption, but high cost of storage and carry, so not a store of value like gold) leads consensus to perpetually describe gold as either ‘about fairly priced’, or headed down on an uncertain demand outlook.