“Accomplishment will prove to be a journey, not a destination.”
– Dwight D. Eisenhower
ROUND TWO REVIVAL?: While the first debate is generally viewed as the most important, the next are very likely to be where the real war will be fought - expect some blood to be drawn. Though the candidates did inflict some wounds, round one was fairly tame by 2016 standards. Hillary Clinton went low on Donald Trump by bringing forward his bullying of a former Miss Universe winner, but Trump showed surprising restraint, and held back, not landing punches on Clinton on topics such as Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation, emails and...her husband. With just under two weeks until the second matchup, though, we expect Trump to take off the gloves, ensuring a real bout when the two meet again October 9th.
BLUEPRINTS AND REDPRINTS: Whether it’s Clinton or Trump, infrastructure spending is in the roadmap next year. Clinton has made infrastructure a bedrock of her job creation plan, putting forward a five-year proposal that includes $250 billion in direct spending on new and improved infrastructure, and details a $25 billion infrastructure bank that provides financial assistance to encourage investors to back projects. Trump often laments that the country’s “third-world” airports and transit systems are falling behind those in countries like China, and though he has yet to lay out any specifics, he’s vowed to double Clinton’s proposal, putting his plan at a whopping half-trillion dollars. Sure, their plans sound great, but whether they can muster support in Congress is far less clear - and remember, if it’s Clinton’s ask and Congress is still controlled by Republicans, they’ll expect a pound of flesh in return.
HERE THEY GO AGAIN: The Senate failed to approve their version of the CR by a vote of 45-55, leaving Congress with just three days to avert a government shutdown. The bill included Zika response funding, barred funds for Planned Parenthood in Puerto Rico, and provided emergency spending for flood assistance to LA, but earned swift opposition from top Democrats because it didn’t include aid for the Flint water crisis. Democrats stress that the stopgap funding resolution is the only “must-pass” legislation remaining on the congressional calendar, and they’re insisting that Congress not leave Flint out of a resolution that includes other emergency disaster funding. Lawmakers have now begun discussions on stripping LA aid money from the stalled spending bill - a move that could possibly resolve Democratic objections, and ultimately stave off a shutdown.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE EXAM: With 40 days until Election Day, we’re updating our Electoral College chart, and moving CO and IA into “leaning” categories. In the last month, the polls have tightened significantly and are testing Clinton’s limitations, but she is still poised to retain an edge in the Electoral College according to Cook Political Report - who currently predicts Clinton will obtain a majority, winning the election by just under 80 electoral votes.
FCC PLANS SET-TOP RULES THIS WEEK: Our Telecommunications-Media Analyst Paul Glenchur discussed how the new set-top competition rules could be incrementally negative for pay tv players and Arris, but a major downside impacts seem unlikely. You can read his piece here.
CALL INVITE: TOP THREE CHALLENGES FOR U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY IN NEXT ADMINISTRATION: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is hosting a call this Friday, September 30th at 11:00 AM EDT with Aerospace Industrial Association CEO, Dave Melcher, to hear what industry is telling and hearing from the candidates. You can find call details here.
