“And in the end, it’s not the years in your life that count.
It’s the life in your years.”
– Abraham Lincoln
ROUND ONE: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump stepped into the ring for the first of three bouts, living up to the hype and even offering up a little insight on what an Administration under either would look like. If you, like most Americans, have a short attention span, then Trump was on his way to pulling off a victory in the first 15 minutes of the debate hitting Clinton where it mattered most; flogging her ideas as old establishment Washington. While effective, he quickly careened off course in both demeanor and details. Clinton then put forward a strong effort outlining her experience, maintaining confidence and poking Trump like a bear, but her attempt to connect to the audience of undecided voters may have fallen short given early readouts. Trump continued his central theme portraying Clinton as a typical politician, but his lack of policy depth proved no match for Clinton's experience in 39 debates. That still leaves the electorate with questions around her likeability and trustworthiness and his temperament and qualifications to be our next president.
IMPACT ON THE ELECTION?: The debates serve as a chance for candidates to move undecided voters before Election Day, and opportunities for voters to compare and contrast the candidates on the issues. But in many previous elections, the debates have generally done little to actually change the overall trajectory of the race - with a few exceptions. But this year the debates should mean much more given the current dynamics. For one - most polls heading into last night had Clinton and Trump in a dead heat, and two - it spotlighted a very unpopular pair of candidates. While shoring up their bases, it's still unclear whether their responses and reactions will have enough of an impact on undecideds to swing the tight election in either direction.
CLOCK TICKING ON CR: We now find ourselves less than 90 hours away from a government shutdown, and ultimately, the path forward is still unclear. The Senate will take a procedural vote later today, but the blame game is still being played on both sides of the aisle - and Capitol Hill Republicans need six votes from their Democrat colleagues to ensure a bill gets passed, but relief for Flint rests atop the heart of the divide, and Democrats are demanding the funds to help improve the water infrastructure in the MI city to ensure clean water is available for all citizens. Neither side plans to blink just yet, but neither want to risk the blame for a shutdown - especially in an election year.
CRUZ CHANGES COURSE: Just two months after failing to endorse Trump on stage at the Republican Convention, and after much soul searching, Ted Cruz will now vote Trump come Election Day. It’s understandable that Cruz will vote for Trump as he finds Clinton as an unacceptable option, but a public endorsement raises many questions. The belief is that Cruz has realized the Supreme Court implications of this year’s election, and believes Trump will put a true conservative on the bench. The effects for Cruz’ 2020 presidential bid, though, are still unclear.
PEACE IN THE MAKING?: The power struggle between establishment House Republicans, House leadership, and the Freedom Caucus has been ongoing for months - the HFC has even threatened to leave the Republican Study Committee if their involvement was not taken seriously. So it’s important to note that RSC leaders are now endorsing HFC member Andy Harris to lead the conservative group in the next Congress. The RSC is the largest and most influential caucus in the House Republican party, as it possesses 178 of the 247 Republican seats in Congress. We’ve mentioned before that the continued battle between Republicans and the far-right will cause issues down the road, but if they’re able to find some common ground here, we may be witnessing a moment of peace heading into next year.
NOTES FROM THE ROAD - CAPITOL HILL EDITION: Our Healthcare Policy Analyst Emily Evans shared her notes from a recent visit to Capitol Hill. You can read them here.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK - STATE OF PLAY: This week, we shifted our focus out west to some of the most interesting races in this year’s presidential election - CO, NV, and AZ. Though the states represent a small margin of the Electoral College with 26 electoral votes, each state possesses the characteristics of the shifting demographics in our nation. You can read our weekly piece here.
ALGIERS FREEZE PLAN ON THE ROCKS: Our Senior Energy Advisor Joe McMonigle shared his insight on why Saudi Arabia wanting Iran to freeze production is nothing new, and why Iran saying no to the freeze is also not new. You can read his piece here.
FCC TARGETS DATA ROAMING RATES: Our Telecommunications-Media Analyst Paul Glenchur shared his insight on how the FCC is now looking to cut wireless data roaming rates - good news for T-Mobile, U.S. Cellular and Sprint at the expense of AT&T and Verizon. You can read his piece here.
CALL INVITE: TOP THREE CHALLENGES FOR U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY IN NEXT ADMINISTRATION: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is hosting a call this Friday, September 30th at 11:00 AM EDT with Aerospace Industrial Association CEO, Dave Melcher, to hear what industry is telling and hearing from the candidates. You can find call details here.
