prev

All Good? Global Defaults Up +61%

Takeaway: Risk continues to rise around the world.

Looking at a global defaults tally from S&P, there were 5 new defaults last week. That brings the global tally to

 

(Drumroll please)

127 Year to date

 

That's up +61% Y/Y. The sustained weakness in the energy patch isn’t only hurting energy companies – Investors who sank money into a rebound are also under water.

 

A very active PE fund in Texas is now asking investors to fork over hundreds of millions of dollars to bolster the troubled funds ... or risk losing the billions they have already invested.

 

All Good? Global Defaults Up +61% - default

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by our Macro team and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Fade

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... There was literally no other call to make heading into last week’s FOMC interest rate decision, other than that Janet Yellen’s Fed would fade. The US Dollar went down on that – rates did too. Stocks, Bonds, Commodities ripped.

 

Why? On a short-term basis here are some current 30-day inverse correlations vs. the US Dollar Index:

  1. SP500 -0.44
  2. Oil -0.70
  3. CRB Index -0.73
  4. Gold -0.74"

CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Fade - 09.26.16 EL Chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

1. Aronstein: Here’s How Every Bull Market Always Ends (9/24/2016)

 

 

Industry veteran and portfolio manager Michael Aronstein, CIO of Marketfield Asset Management, has made a career out of making the big, contrarian macro calls that no one else saw coming. In this brief excerpt from a longer “Real Conversations” interview, Aronstein sat down with private investor Buddy Carter and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the markets and economy look increasingly vulnerable.

 

2. How Trump & Clinton Can Win Monday’s ‘Super Bowl’ Debate (9/23/2016)

 

 

In this video edition of the Capital Brief, Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor discuss Monday’s Presidential Debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. 

 

3. Replay | About Everything with Neil Howe (9/22/2016)

 

REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV - AE thumbnail 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials. Howe explains the investing implications of this new generation.

 

Click here to read Howe's associated About Everything written piece. 

  

4. Real Conversations: Michael Aronstein ‘Unplugged’ on the Biggest Market Risks (9/22/2016)

 

 

Industry veteran and portfolio manager Michael Aronstein, CIO of Marketfield Asset Management, sits down with private investor Buddy Carter and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in this edition of “Real Conversations.” The trio discusses critical developments facing investors right now and why the markets and economy look increasingly vulnerable.

 

5. Pandora: 2 Reasons Why We’re Now Bullish (But Still Dislike The Company) (9/21/2016)

 

 

Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shabaan recommended shorting Pandora Media (P) from December 2014 until earlier this year. Recently, he’s flipped to the long side. For now. Shabaan explains why in this excerpt from The Macro Show yesterday. 

 

6. Best Idea Long: Why Expedia Holds All The Cards (9/20/16) 

 

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban lays out our Best Idea Long call on Expedia and why the company’s HomeAway acquisition is a “considerable opportunity” relative to Wall Street’s expectations.

 

7. Beware of Fed’s ‘Blunt Instrument To The Face’ (9/19/2016)

 

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question on monetary policy and the investing impact of a Fed rate hike.

 

8. Emerging Markets: 4 Countries To Buy & 3 To Sell (9/19/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discuss the emerging market countries they like and don’t like.

 

Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. NIRP (9/23/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Kuroda negative penny 09.23.2016 


Japan is the world's monetary policy playground. 

 

2. Janet In Wonderland (9/22/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Yellen Madhatter.09.22.2016

 

"Asset valuations are not outside of historical norms," Fed head Janet Yellen said at yesterday's FOMC press conference. Is Yellen living in Wonderland? 

 

3. Hangin' On (9/21/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Yellen   bull 09.21.2016

 

LOL. "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms," Janet Yellen said at today's FOMC press conference.

 

4. Hawkish or Dovish? (9/20/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed hawkish dovish cartoon 09.20.2016

 

Incessant Fed flip-flopping from hawkish to dovish (6x in 8 months!?) is simply insane.

 

5. The Great Debate (9/19/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Deflation v reflation cartoon 09.19.2016

 

In today's Early Look, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough took the Fed to task for it's use of the word "transitory" in describing anything that doesn't fit its narrative, namely deflation. He writes, "Why are crashing inflation expectations (Oil prices for example from $105/barrel) “transitory”, but bear market bounces not equally transient?"

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


Aronstein: Here’s How Every Bull Market Always Ends

Industry veteran and portfolio manager Michael Aronstein, CIO of Marketfield Asset Management, has made a career out of making the big, contrarian macro calls that no one else saw coming. In this brief excerpt from a longer “Real Conversations” interview, Aronstein sat down with private investor Buddy Carter and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the markets and economy look increasingly vulnerable.

 

“Bull markets don’t end because suddenly people who have made a lot of money decide you know what I’ve made too much I’ve got to sell this,” Aronstein says in the interview. “All bull markets end with a surge in supply.” Essentially, investors crowd into a popular trade that then suddenly goes bust due to some unforeseen shock.

 

In the brief clip below, Aronstein suggests how he thinks this bull market ends.

 

Want more?

 

To watch this edition of “Real Conversations” in its entirety check out the video below.


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 26th of September through the 30th of September is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

The Week Ahead - 09.23.16 Week Ahead


get free cartoon of the day!

Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

next