5 Things I'm Doing This Morning

Editor's Note: This is a complimentary excerpt from today's Early Look. Click here to subscribe for $1 a day.


5 Things I'm Doing This Morning - z cash


Back to what to do this morning:


  1. After, as they say on the Old Wall, “putting money to work” getting longer of duration in SEP, I say raise some CASH
  2. I’m going to raise my CASH position in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model by 31% this morning (rate of change!)
  3. Short some cyclicals and industrials in preparation for the #DoubleDipRecession in those sectors
  4. In Real-Time Alerts I’m re-shorting Wabtec (WAB) and shorting Industrials (XLI) for the 1st time in a long time
  5. And sell some super long-term bonds (ZROZ) and Gold (GLD) as they tapped the top-end of their range yesterday


I know, going both ways (within the risk range) is quite liberating. It used to be orthodox to “buy low and sell high.” Somewhere amidst the bull though, that discipline has been exchanged for chart chasing. You know, bro - buy high, and hope to sell higher…


I don’t do that.

Our Top Macro Call Is More Than Double The S&P 500's Return Year-To-Date

Takeaway: Long Bonds (TLT) are beating the return of the S&P 500 by more than 7% year-to-date.

That's right... 


Fed fades, rates fall, stocks/bonds/commodities all ramp – so easy a #GrowthSlowing guy can do it!


The 10yr Treasury yield is all the way back down to 1.61% this morning (10s/2s back down to 84bps) – that’s 6x in 16 months that you had an outstanding buying opportunity in long-term bonds and/or stocks that look like bonds. Now we go back to no Fed to stress over as both the slowing economic data and Q3 earnings season take over.



 Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products




Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies


Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - commodities

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CHART OF THE DAY: Dispelling The Myths Of Consensus Orthodoxy

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.


"... ‘Oh, but I’m not buying Utilities, KM. My orthodox theory of finance says to buy “cheap” stocks and sell “expensive” ones.’ Ok, I hear you brother. But expensive just got more expensive and cheap just got cheaper (again).


That’s right too. For the month of SEP, where the call was to fade the rate hike fear:

  1. Utilities (XLU) are +3.55% for the month-to-date and now leading the league (again) at +17.8% YTD
  2. Financials (XLF) are down -2.32% for the month-to-date and still the cellar dweller at +0.67% YTD

Don’t be “up 0.67% YTD.” That is not cool."


CHART OF THE DAY: Dispelling The Myths Of Consensus Orthodoxy - 09.23.16 EL Chart

Cartoon of the Day: Janet In Wonderland

Cartoon of the Day: Janet In Wonderland - Yellen Madhatter.09.22.2016


"Asset valuations are not outside of historical norms," Fed head Janet Yellen said at yesterday's FOMC press conference. Is Yellen living in Wonderland?

Why Gold Is Up 26% Year-To-Date (1 Chart & 1 Video)

Takeaway: One reason why Gold is up 26% year-to-date is the breakdown in the belief that central planners can bend and smooth economic gravity.

According to Gallop polls, there has been a 14-year slide in confidence that the "Fed leader will do the right thing for the economy?" 


Shocker, we know...


Why Gold Is Up 26% Year-To-Date (1 Chart & 1 Video) - fed confidence gallup 

Source: WSJ


Fed head Janet Yellen did little to inspire confidence at yesterday's FOMC press conference with statements like this:

  • “Asset values aren't out of line with historical norms.”
  • “The Fed wants the expansion to last as long as possible.”
  • “There is little risk to falling behind the curve in the near future so the FOMC can be gradual in its rate hikes.”

What Does the Fed's Confidence Crisis have to do with Gold?


As Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough points out in the video below, "Gold loves the blowup of the central planning belief system."



Make no mistake, the central planning #BeliefSystem failing. And fast.