PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK
STATE OF PLAY
With the first presidential debate just hours away and the latest polls showing the race a dead heat, we shift our focus out west to some of the most interesting races in this year’s presidential election - CO, NV, and AZ. Though the states only represent a small margin of the Electoral College with 26 electoral votes, each state possesses the characteristics of the shifting demographics in our nation.
COLORADO
CO has nine electoral votes, which is almost 2% of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and a little more than 3% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, CO voted for the winning presidential candidate 76% of the time, and in that same time frame, CO supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 76% to 35%. In presidential elections between 2000 and 2012, the state backed Democrats and Republicans evenly, supporting George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
This year, CO is a toss-up, but nonetheless, it is a state that all the pundits simply refuse to solidly take out of the Democrats' column. The average of all statewide polls has Hillary Clinton with a four-point lead, but most national polling trends across the country have been shifting towards Donald Trump, especially with the reaction to Clinton's health issues.
Another big assist for Trump in CO comes in the form of Libertarian Gary Johnson, whose popularity makes sense in the state, as he was the governor of neighboring NM - but Johnson is also well known in CO for favoring national marijuana legalization, something that's very popular in the state. Johnson is polling as high as 14% in the average of all polls in CO, which is simply an enormous level of support at this late stage in a national election for any third-party candidate. But don’t be fooled too much by the polls - we expect Clinton to take CO by a slim margin.
NEVADA
NV has six electoral votes, which is roughly 1% of the 538 electoral votes and a little more than 2% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, NV cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 90% of the time, one of the highest accuracy rates in the country. In that same time frame, NV supported Democratic candidates for president slightly more often than Republican candidates, 51% to 49%. The state, however, favored Republicans and Democrats equally between 2000 and 2012, with George W. Bush winning in 2000 and 2004 and President Obama winning in 2008 and 2012.
Trump has a small three-point advantage over Clinton among likely voters in the Silver State, leading 43%-40%, while Libertarian Gary Johnson receives 8%. Interestingly enough, NV voters can also cast a ballot for “none of these,” and that option makes a large dent at 4%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is also not on the ballot in NV. Though the state has a small amount of electoral votes, it is another must win for Trump, who will take what he can get – and so far, he’s looking poised to carry his lead over into November.
ARIZONA
AZ has 11 electoral votes, which is 2% of the 538 electoral votes and 4% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1912 - the first year AZ cast electoral votes in a general election for president - and 2012, AZ voted for the winning presidential candidate 77% of the time. In that same time frame, AZ supported Republican candidates more often than Democratic candidates, 65% to 35%. The state favored Republican candidates in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012.
Polls are running neck and neck in AZ, with Trump maintaining a slight lead over Clinton. Though the state has voted Republican in last four presidential races, Clinton has held her own in the state due to shifting demographics, and population growth. The state saw the 2nd largest percentage growth in population over the past decade (about 25%) earning it one additional electoral vote through the 2020 presidential election. When it comes down to it, we expect the Republican party’s history and presence in the state to remain true to form, giving Trump the 11 electoral votes.
