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PREMIUM INSIGHT

Fed Rate Hike? Does This Look Like A "Rates Rising" Chart To You?

Fed Rate Hike? Does This Look Like A "Rates Rising" Chart To You? - us treasury 2 9 22

I’ve spent a lot of time in the last 16 months trying to think for myself on why slower and lower for longer was the better option than living in perpetual fear of a redo of the “rates rising” call we made (short the Long Bond and Gold) in 2013.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything: Replay with Neil Howe & Ben Ryan

About Everything: Replay with Neil Howe & Ben Ryan - AE thumbnail

Join Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe for a live Q&A at 2pm ET. In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials, and explains the investing implications of this new generation. 


PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything | Kids These Days: Homelanders

About Everything | Kids These Days: Homelanders - slide

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials. Howe explains the investing implications of this new generation.


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CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse)

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse) - Eco Summary Table

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse) - EL christian


5 Key Takeaways: What You Need To Know About Fed & BoJ Statements

Takeaway: The BoJ underwhelmed but suggests incremental easing on the horizon. Meanwhile, Fed stands pat but raises specter of December rate hike.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com. For more on the subject of central planning check out analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough here and Dale here.

 

5 Key Takeaways: What You Need To Know About Fed & BoJ Statements - central bank kool aid 06.09.2016

 

  1. While the BoJ underwhelmed near-term easing expectations in the most confounding of manners, a detailed review of their policy statement in the context of preexisting cyclical and structural growth and inflation dynamics suggests incremental easing is likely to come in the not-too-distant future.
  2. Looking beyond the immediate-term TRADE duration, it’s safe to conclude that the potential for a protracted JGB “tantrum” has been dramatically reduced and the key implication of dramatically-reduced JGB “tantrum” risk is reduced upward pressure on U.S. interest rates.
  3. With respect to the Fed, if it looks like a dove, walks like a dove and coos like a dove – it’s probably a dove. Looking beyond the [likely] December rate hike guidance inserted into today’s FOMC statement, both the Summary Economic Projections and Yellen press conference offered a slew of dovish takeaways.
  4. Moreover, the confluence of their ongoing “data dependence” and our dour outlook for the U.S. economy and the labor market imply the 10Y Treasury yield’s intraday high of 1.73% may represent the peak of 2016 rate hike fears.
  5. All told, we reiterate our bullish bias on Treasury bonds and defensive (i.e. non-cyclical) dividend yields in the context of our “lower-for-longer” and #LateCycle slowdown themes, having likely just survived yet another round of [largely ungrounded] consensus fear of higher rates. 

Cartoon of the Day: Hangin' On

Cartoon of the Day: Hangin' On - Yellen   bull 09.21.2016

 

LOL. "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms," Janet Yellen said at today's FOMC press conference.


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