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PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything: Replay with Neil Howe & Ben Ryan

About Everything: Replay with Neil Howe & Ben Ryan - AE thumbnail

Join Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe for a live Q&A at 2pm ET. In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials, and explains the investing implications of this new generation. 


PREMIUM INSIGHT

About Everything | Kids These Days: Homelanders

About Everything | Kids These Days: Homelanders - slide

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials. Howe explains the investing implications of this new generation.


CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse)

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse) - Eco Summary Table

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Did The Fed Go Dovish? (21 of 32 Economic Indicators Getting Worse) - EL christian


Early Look

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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

5 Key Takeaways: What You Need To Know About Fed & BoJ Statements

Takeaway: The BoJ underwhelmed but suggests incremental easing on the horizon. Meanwhile, Fed stands pat but raises specter of December rate hike.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. To access our institutional research email sales@hedgeye.com. For more on the subject of central planning check out analysis via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough here and Dale here.

 

5 Key Takeaways: What You Need To Know About Fed & BoJ Statements - central bank kool aid 06.09.2016

 

  1. While the BoJ underwhelmed near-term easing expectations in the most confounding of manners, a detailed review of their policy statement in the context of preexisting cyclical and structural growth and inflation dynamics suggests incremental easing is likely to come in the not-too-distant future.
  2. Looking beyond the immediate-term TRADE duration, it’s safe to conclude that the potential for a protracted JGB “tantrum” has been dramatically reduced and the key implication of dramatically-reduced JGB “tantrum” risk is reduced upward pressure on U.S. interest rates.
  3. With respect to the Fed, if it looks like a dove, walks like a dove and coos like a dove – it’s probably a dove. Looking beyond the [likely] December rate hike guidance inserted into today’s FOMC statement, both the Summary Economic Projections and Yellen press conference offered a slew of dovish takeaways.
  4. Moreover, the confluence of their ongoing “data dependence” and our dour outlook for the U.S. economy and the labor market imply the 10Y Treasury yield’s intraday high of 1.73% may represent the peak of 2016 rate hike fears.
  5. All told, we reiterate our bullish bias on Treasury bonds and defensive (i.e. non-cyclical) dividend yields in the context of our “lower-for-longer” and #LateCycle slowdown themes, having likely just survived yet another round of [largely ungrounded] consensus fear of higher rates. 

Cartoon of the Day: Hangin' On

Cartoon of the Day: Hangin' On - Yellen   bull 09.21.2016

 

LOL. "In general, I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms," Janet Yellen said at today's FOMC press conference.


Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard?

Takeaway: Prime Minister Abe has his head in the sand on Japan's demographic trends.

Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard? - Abenomics unicorn cartoon 09.24.2015

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe remarked today that Japan's aging population was not a burden on its economy. It's an incentive.

 

Huh?

 

When asked about the 34.6 million people aged 65 and older, or 27.3% of the population (highest proportion among advanced nations) Abe told the crowd, "I have absolutely no worries about Japan's demography."

 

"Japan may be aging. Japan may be losing its population," he said. "But these are incentives for us. Why? Because we will continue to be motivated to grow our productivity." The prime minister cited robots, wireless sensors, and Artificial Intelligence as among the bastions of support for future Japanese growth.

 

"So, Japan's demography, paradoxically, is not an onus, but a bonus," Abe said.

Ok, enough.

 

Here are the facts from our Macro team's 99-page 3Q16 Macro Themes deck. It all boils down to the fact that an aging country that is steadily losing its core consumption cohort, people ages 35 to 54 years old, will find itself mired in slow growth. Our Macro team has labelled Japan's dire economic circumstances over the coming ten years as "plunging into the abyss."

 

As you can see in the chart below, despite Abe's handwringing, the outlook isn't good.

 

Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard? - japan demographics


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