“Great lives never go out; they go on.”
- Benjamin Harrison
BIGGER - AND BETTER: Though Donald Trump has expanded his fundraising and political infrastructure in August, it was still no match for Hillary Clinton, as his combined monthly fundraising trailed hers by $42 million. Trump’s campaign, along with two supportive super PACs and the RNC, grossed a combined $70 million, relying largely on small donors, while Clinton, with one allied super PAC and the DNC, raised $112 million, leaning heavily on major donors, star-studded events and an influx of smaller donors. Clinton’s camp is continuing to make a push to register voters, hold phone banks, and knock on doors in a series of battleground states, and though Trump has recruited the RNC to augment his efforts, but there is still no comparison to the massive organization that Clinton and her team have assembled.
LOOKING TO AVOID A KNOCKOUT PUNCH: Trump has struggled to sell himself as the candidate who can fix the problems of African-American communities and even stepped out to campaign with former boxing promoter Don King, who dropped a bomb before a group of pastors while introducing Trump. Trump’s polling among African-Americans has been dismal, falling to low single digits at times, and some believe his outreach to the community is as much about convincing moderate white voters that he is not racist. On the other hand, Clinton isn’t a complete lock for African-Americans either - she’s pinning her hopes on Barack Obama and deploying him in an effort to excite the community while looking to repeat his last two commanding performances.
AND WE’RE OFF: Don’t worry, it’s still way too early to predict anything significant, but early voting figures may be a trend leading up to November 8th. So far, figures show promise for Clinton in NC, while Trump has the advantage in IA. NC is a must-win state for Trump, and out of the 53,000 voters who have requested ballots, 40% are Democrats, while 33% are Republican - we know there are six weeks to go, but you want to start ahead and stay ahead. IA doesn't officially begin early voting until later this month, but of the 68,000, 60% are Democrats, while 19 % are Republicans. But IA Democrats are requesting fewer ballots than they did when Obama ran in 2012 - he won the state both times and relied heavily on the support of early voters.
SEPTEMBER SHOWDOWN: The Senate will stay in session next week for two reasons - the looming funding issue and a showdown with Obama over legislation making it easier for the families of victims of 9/11 to sue Saudi Arabia. Obama is expected to veto the legislation later this week, even after it passed with bipartisan support. The rising issue is that a two-thirds majority in both chambers is needed to override the president’s veto, and some senior lawmakers are now having second thoughts insisting they'll need to listen to the Administration's objections. If Congress were to leave for the campaign trail this week, the Administration might have had a better shot at convincing Democrats to uphold the veto in a lame-duck session, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is determined to stay in the Capitol to deal with the issue…along with many others.
IMPEACHMENT PLEA: IRS Commissioner John Koskinen spent yesterday morning persuading members of the House Judiciary Committee to stave off an impeachment drive by the Freedom Caucus. Remember, congressional leaders promised the hearing after Freedom Caucus members backed off their demands for an immediate impeachment floor vote - something House Republicans certainly don’t need right now. Koskinen expressed regrets for his failings related to allegations that the agency destroyed emails, and that Koskinen misled Congress about those records - but Committee Chair Jason Chaffetz, who filed an impeachment resolution against Koskinen last year, has yet to decide whether or not he will do so again this year.
CALL INVITE: TOP THREE CHALLENGES FOR U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY IN NEXT ADMINISTRATION: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is hosting a call on September 30th at 11:00 AM EDT with Aerospace Industrial Association CEO, Dave Melcher, to hear what industry is telling and hearing from the candidates. You can find call details here.
FREEZE PUT ON ICE FOR SEPTEMBER: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle shared his insight on when Iran will be in a position to unfreeze again. You can read his piece here.
REPLAY | ELECTION UPDATE: CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: In case you missed it, we hosted a call with Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report and one of the nation’s leading authorities on American politics and U.S. elections. He shared his outlook on the presidential race, discussed the state of play for House and Senate elections, and gave us a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month. You can listen to the replay here.
