Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard?

Takeaway: Prime Minister Abe has his head in the sand on Japan's demographic trends.

Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard? - Abenomics unicorn cartoon 09.24.2015

 

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe remarked today that Japan's aging population was not a burden on its economy. It's an incentive.

 

Huh?

 

When asked about the 34.6 million people aged 65 and older, or 27.3% of the population (highest proportion among advanced nations) Abe told the crowd, "I have absolutely no worries about Japan's demography."

 

"Japan may be aging. Japan may be losing its population," he said. "But these are incentives for us. Why? Because we will continue to be motivated to grow our productivity." The prime minister cited robots, wireless sensors, and Artificial Intelligence as among the bastions of support for future Japanese growth.

 

"So, Japan's demography, paradoxically, is not an onus, but a bonus," Abe said.

Ok, enough.

 

Here are the facts from our Macro team's 99-page 3Q16 Macro Themes deck. It all boils down to the fact that an aging country that is steadily losing its core consumption cohort, people ages 35 to 54 years old, will find itself mired in slow growth. Our Macro team has labelled Japan's dire economic circumstances over the coming ten years as "plunging into the abyss."

 

As you can see in the chart below, despite Abe's handwringing, the outlook isn't good.

 

Is Japan Whistling Past the Demographic Graveyard? - japan demographics


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more