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CHART OF THE DAY: A Chance To Buy Long Bonds ... Again

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... In my own 7 game series, this is game 6… and I’m down by a goal going into the 3rd period. As you can see in the Chart of the Day, since this is the 6th “rates are gonna rip” scare in the last 16 months, my team has already won 5 games in a row and now we’re just playing for fun."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: A Chance To Buy Long Bonds ... Again - 09.20.16 EL Chart


Cartoon of the Day: The Great Debate

Cartoon of the Day: The Great Debate - Deflation v reflation cartoon 09.19.2016

 

In today's Early Look, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough took the Fed to task for it's use of the word "transitory" in describing anything that doesn't fit its narrative, namely deflation. He writes, "Why are crashing inflation expectations (Oil prices for example from $105/barrel) “transitory”, but bear market bounces not equally transient?"


Beware of Fed’s ‘Blunt Instrument To The Face’

In this excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber’s question on monetary policy and the investing impact of a Fed rate hike.


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Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

7 Reasons Market Risk 'Significantly Exceeds' Reward

Takeaway: We think the "risk-reward" of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside.

7 Reasons Market Risk 'Significantly Exceeds' Reward - S P 500 cartoon 06.08.2016

 

Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner listed the many reasons why we think the "risk-reward" of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside.

 

Here's a brief recap from a recent edition of The Macro Show

 

  1. You’ve got small business loans and credit quality deteriorating, an enormous part of the economy.
  2. You’ve got the rest of the lending complex beginning to tighten.
  3. You’ve got the Fed in a position in which it's not able to do much about it.
  4. You’ve got a broad swath of economic indicators getting worse.
  5. You’ve got market valuation up on a rope.
  6. You’ve got the duration of the labor cycle very extended.
  7. And then there's this curious case of significant decline in maternity rates taking hold across America.

 

As Steiner summarized:

 

"To me, it all paints a very fascinating picture of risk versus reward in the marketplace right now, where I think it's pretty plain that risk significantly exceeds what’s being priced into stocks and it's not that uncommon an occurence. In October 2007, it should have been pretty plain to many people that things were going to go from bad to worse when the market was at an all-time high. And so the fact that the market hit a very high level is not a defensible argument for why we shouldn’t be concerned about all of this deterioration. It's actually exactly the opposite."


6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals

Editor’s Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner. To access our Financials team’s research ping sales@hedgeye.com.

 

6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals - red light

 

The trend of tepid risk readings broke last week with 6 of 13 indicators flashing short-term warning signals.

 

Most notably, the TED spread, a measure of counterparty risk in the financial system, spiked by 6 bps to 57. That is the highest reading since January 2012. Separately, the Shifon Index (China's TED Spread equivalent) has been quietly, but steadily creeping higher for the past month. Meanwhile, CDS widened globally, the high yield YTM shot up by +13 bps to 6.43%, and the price of Chinese steel dropped -1.5%.

 

6 of 13 Key Indicators Flashing Warning Signals - ted spread 9 19


PREMIUM INSIGHT

Emerging Markets: 4 Countries To Buy & 3 To Sell

Emerging Markets: 4 Countries To Buy & 3 To Sell  - HETV macroshow thumb 9.19.2016

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale discuss the emerging market countries they like and don’t like.


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Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

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