JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

09/20/16 07:22AM EDT

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“Things don't turn up in this world until somebody turns them up.”

-  James A. Garfield

TERROR TAKES CENTER STAGE: Leaders emerge in times of tragedy, and this time around, we are once again witnessing two contrasting responses from candidates running to be the country’s next leader. Both remained true to form in their reactions, with Donald Trump sounding alarms and returning to his extreme profiling stance and Hillary Clinton offering caution. Trump took the stage and reported what no news outlets or law enforcement officials had yet, stating he predicted this would happen, while Clinton delivered more somber remarks, and outlined her goals to combat terrorism and increase national security. Candidates ultimately differentiate themselves in times like these and Trump is tapping into the angst many Americans are feeling and his call to beef up border security has given him an edge so far.   

MISSING OUT ON MILLENNIALS?: Clinton knows her poll numbers and support among millennials are sagging and she’s lost some valuable ground here - especially to Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Even though she’s still leading in national polls, she’s trailing in her own goal to motivate and excite young voters who launched President Barack Obama in PA and nationally in 2008 and 2012 - Obama won 60% of the millennial vote, and Clinton currently stands at 31% down from 48% in August. Clinton does lack the appeal of candidates like Obama and Bernie Sanders, but she knows what she needs to win and is willing to go to great lengths to get it - kicking off her week at Temple University in eastern PA, following a blitzkrieg of visits from her deep surrogate bench last week.

 

CLOSING IN ON A CR: Republicans are hoping to prove Democrats wrong by approving a stopgap bill to fund the government until mid-December later this week. Most outstanding issues, like Planned Parenthood language related to Zika funding, disaster relief for LA, Flint water crisis money, and internet domain oversight are still being resolved in the Senate - a necessary move after House conservatives threatened to withhold support for a bill that didn’t go into next year. If the funding bill passes, notch it as a rare win for a Congress that has unsuccessfully confronted a number of tense issues in this election year. Of course, this isn’t the end of it - the CR is only a patch until December, and a lame duck Congress will need to revisit it in just a few short months.  

LITTLE GREEN SHOOTS: Trump is in the midst of receiving an unparalleled amount of small-dollar donations, one that past Republican Party nominees have only dreamed about. When he reveals his campaign’s financials later this week, we expect them to show he has crushed the total haul from small donors compared to the last two Republican nominees. Trump is fast approaching $100 million from donors who have given less than $200, a threshold no previous Republican has ever achieved in a single campaign, and he’s done it in less than three months after signing his first email solicitation in late June. Talk about perfect timing.

TRUMP REOPENS DOOR ON BIRTHERISM: Trump, whose entire political persona was built on the conspiracy theory about President Obama’s birthplace, announced he no longer believes his own nonsense, and is falsely blaming Clinton for its genesis. To make matters worse, campaign surrogates like NJ Governor Chris Christie, who is about to face problems of his own, are now aiding and abetting that theory. We thought this inanity was put to bed a long time ago - these next 48 days could be very grim if Trump can’t return to staying on message.

 

TODAY → CALL INVITE: ELECTION UPDATE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Please join us for a call today at 2:00 PM EDT with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report to discuss his outlook on the presidential race, the state of play for House and Senate elections, and a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month. Call details can be found here.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK - STATE OF PLAY: In case you missed it, we analyzed some of the largest and most important southeastern states in this year’s presidential election - VA, NC, and FL. With 57 electoral votes at stake, these three states are shaping up to be some of the most highly contested and contentious in U.S. election history. You can read our weekly piece here.

DAN CHRISTMAN/SYRIA: ANOTHER 30 YEARS WAR?: In case you missed it, our Geopolitical Analyst LtGen. Dan Christman shared his insight on the Syrian cease-fire deal and the ongoing conflict in the country. You can read his piece here.

FIVE REASONS WHY A FREEZE ISN’T IN THE CARDS: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle discussed why Iran cannot freeze, the IEA’s prediction that non-OPEC production will rise in 1H2017, and why this is anti-freeze to Saudi Arabia. You can read his piece here.

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