“I like the noise of democracy.”
- James Buchanan
CLINTON TURNS THE PAGE: It’s no secret Hillary Clinton has struggled recently, but her three day rest break may serve as the reset she needed. With 52 days until Election Day, she’ll need to turn the page and focus on the issues. If she continues to hammer Donald Trump, her impolitic comments stay on the front page, but with the race statistically tied, it's more important that she moves on. Moving past her missteps shows her in a positive light - something she currently lacks with voters. Her campaign hopes American voters are ready to shift back to the real issues at hand - immigration, national security, and the economy - areas where Clinton should shine.
TRUMP TAX CUT: Trump unveiled parts of his new economic plan, claiming it would create 25 million jobs in a decade and grow the economy by 3.5% per year - strong numbers for a man who continues to criticize economic statistics. His plan would remove millions of low-income Americans from tax rolls and cut no spending from Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The benefits sound great and Trump is moving in the right direction with his presentation, but the overall plan lacks detail, and warrants questions on unclear costs.
BENEFITTING FROM THE BUMP?: We get it, Trump is in excellent physical health to serve - but that’s not the only thing that is showing healthy signs as of late - his poll numbers have taken a strong jump over the past week. And like we’ve mentioned before, the way the state votes in the presidential election has a direct correlation to the way it votes for the Senate - take for instance OH and NV - both are considered battleground states for the presidential and Senate elections. Earlier this summer, both races tightened up, but are now leaning Republican. If the correlation stays true, and his momentum continues, Republicans could ultimately hold the Senate…and quite possibly take the White House.
PROGRESSIVE PAY BACK: The progressive wing of the Democratic party is still feeling the burn from President Barack Obama, and is becoming ill at ease that Clinton isn't one of them - because she’s really not. Progressives have taken steps they feel are necessary, and created a blacklist of individuals they know will not represent them in the Clinton Administration. The list includes many of Clinton’s closest associates, and depicts them as the kind of establishment figures that progressives fear. Clinton knows she has to compensate her allies for their support in her campaign, but it remains to be seen how far she is willing to go to.
SUPREME COURT SHOWDOWN: Chatter has quieted down in the corridors of the Senate over Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, but the prospects of a Clinton presidency continue. We’ve pointed out that just a few months from now the alternative could be much different - especially if Democrats are able to take the Senate and narrow the gap in the House - and we still feel that way. Clinton has even gone on to mention that she wouldn’t be bound by President Obama’s nomination of Garland and would look elsewhere if she takes office in January with the seat still unfilled - and that indication is enough for us. Republicans need to come around to the notion that Garland may be their best option going forward.
FIGHT FOR FINANCIAL REFORM: The tug-of-war over financial services reform continues as the House approved a bill to ease regulatory requirements on private-equity managers, and the House Financial Services Committee moved their long-awaited bill to repeal and replace parts of Dodd-Frank out of committee. The bills, which do not have a companions on the other side of the Capitol, face long odds of ever becoming law and are already facing veto threats from the White House. Financial reform has been on the House Republican agenda for some time now, and even though their efforts continuously fall short, they’re putting down strong placeholders in the event a Republican takes over the White House.
CALL INVITE: ELECTION UPDATE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Please join us for a call on Tuesday, September 20th at 2:00 PM EDT with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report to discuss his outlook on the presidential race, the state of play for House and Senate elections, and a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month. Call details can be found here.
