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This Country Is The Poster Child of #BeliefSystem Breakdown

Takeaway: The "Land of the Rising Sun" is looking more desperate with each passing day (and each BOJ market intervention).

This Country Is The Poster Child of #BeliefSystem Breakdown - Japan cartoon 05.02.2016

"The #BeliefSystem in central-market-planning...

 

"...continues to break-down as Global Growth Slows," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in his Early Look morning missive to subscribers.

 

In case you weren't already aware, he added ... Japan is the epicenter of all things “central-market-planning innovation.” Watch what's going on there very closely. The Nikkei was down (hard) again -1.3% overnight on a Yen move that did nothing – despite the Bank of Japan “buying” (every day into the close).

 

For the record, the crash in the Nikkei Composite Casino (from the 2015 top in the Global Equities bubble) is back to -21.5%.

 

This Country Is The Poster Child of #BeliefSystem Breakdown - km japan

 

This movie is going to get very interesting. 

 


RED SHOOTS, Month 12

Takeaway: Retail Sales & Industrial Production ↓, 3Q Growth Estimates ↓, The longest non-recessionary streak of negative growth continues.

I was going to go with “This Time Is Different, Month 12” for the title as it carries more contextual relevance but “Red Shoots” is more sensational and click worthy so the former gets the backhanded honor of 1st subheading . 

  

 

This Time Is Different, month 12 | Industrial Production:   Counting the number of consecutive months of growth with a negative sign in front of it probably doesn’t qualify as “analysis” but the stagnation streak in industrial activity has been singularly remarkable. 

 

The Context: Inclusive of this morning’s August data, Industrial Production growth has been negative year-over-year for 12 consecutive months and together with New Capital Goods Orders – where growth has been negative for an epic 18 of the last 19 months – represent the worst streaks of non-recessionary data ever.   To now, Industrial Production has also carried the distinction of sending zero false positive signals with respect to recession signaling over the last 7+ decades.

 

With manufacturing employment and aggregate hours worked in the manufacturing space both down in August (NFP data), the sequential softness in Industrial Activity was pretty well telegraphed.  And, of course, as we’ve gradually transitioned away from industrial-centricity as an economy, the magnitude of impact of falling industrial production and its potency as a concurrent-to-lead indicator has similarly diminished.   But that doesn’t fully obviate its relevance.

 

The Conclusion: With industrial Production declining, the manufacturing ISM’s in or flirting with contraction, the New Orders components in the Fed Regional surveys in near ubiquitous retreat, Forward Capex plans continuing to trend lower, and global DM demand still flagging, a sustained positive inflection does not characterize the outlook for investment spending and industrial activity over the nearer-term.

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - IP LT

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - Capacity Utilization

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - Capex Plans

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - ISM mfg Aug

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - IP Table

 

 

Retail Sales | No Good(s):  Consumption Spending continues to buttress consensus expectations for domestic growth as negative revisions continue to characterize the balance of GDP expenditure types.  Goods spending (i.e. Retail Sales)- which represents  ~35% of PCE and ~25% of GDP -  failed to cooperate for a 2nd month in 3Q.

 

Headline Retail Sales fell -0.3% MoM against positively revised July estimates (July revised +10 bps to +0.1% from +0.0%) with YoY growth slowing to a 5-month low at +1.9% YoY.  The headline weakness was not unexpected as auto sales represent ~20% of total and unit sales were down -5% MoM in August.  Ex-Autos, however, the trend was similar. 

 

The Retail Sales Control Group (GDP input) declined for a second month, falling -0.1% sequentially while decelerating -30 bps to +2.8% YoY.  On a QoQ annualized basis, sales are currently tracking at just +0.8%.   This is in sharp contrast to the 2Q trend where goods consumption growth was tracking +6.1% QoQ after 2 months of data.   Comparatively healthier growth in Services Consumption (~65% of Household Spending) helped support total PCE growth in July and will need to hold in to avoid a meaningful deceleration in consumer spending growth. 

 

For August, the takeaways are as trivial as the data reporting:  

  1. We are going against the hardest consumption comp of the cycle in 3Q and harder comps and slowing growth do not a positive second derivative make. 
  2. Growth estimates will get a downward revision following this morning’s data.   

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - Retail Sales Table

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - RS Headline   Control Group

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - RS vs Real PCE

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - RS Jobfull Nonrecovery

 

RED SHOOTS, Month 12 - GDP Estimates by bucket

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA


Poll of The Day: Which Word Below BEST Reflects Your Opinion of the #Fed?

Four choices. choose one.

 

Poll of The Day: Which Word Below BEST Reflects Your Opinion of the #Fed? - fed poll

 


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Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss

Takeaway: For retailers that report earnings publicly, the right Retail Sales categories missed and the wrong categories beat.

1) Retail Sales missed expectations for the 2nd time in a row after beating for 3 months straight. Only +1.9% vs expectations of +2.1% BEARISH.

2) We saw a 50bp sequential slowdown in the 2-year. 3-yr looks stable. NET BEARISH.

3) Decel all around ex Food, Gas, Auto. BEARISH.

4) By category, if you sell Food (+5.8%), On-Line (+10.9%), Health/Personal Care (+7.8) or Building Supplies (+2.2%) you’re in good shape. BULLISH.

5) Everything else was mostly down (GAFO, notably). Clothing down 1.1% and now faces a very difficult +2.4% comp vs Sept of last year. BEARISH.

 

Here’s the link to our Macro Overview of what people should be focused on with these numbers, but are not.

LINK: The Macro Show, with Retail Sector Head Brian McGough and Darius Dale | Replay

 

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart1

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart2

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart3

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart4

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart5

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart6

Retail Sales: Quick Take on Yet Another Miss - 9 15 2016 chart7


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September 15, 2016

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INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.73 1.48 1.70
SPX
S&P 500
2,109 2,160 2,125
RUT
Russell 2000
1,197 1,231 1,211
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,110 5,228 5,173
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
35.05 36.93 35.71
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,150 1,210 1,171
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,306 16,699 16,614
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,288 10,562 10,378
VIX
Volatility Index
13.86 19.62 18.14
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
94.50 96.40 95.25
EURUSD
Euro
1.11 1.13 1.12
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
101.29 104.40 102.38
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
42.44 46.49 43.58
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.64 2.97 2.89
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,305 1,358 1,326
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.05 2.16 2.15
AAPL
Apple Inc.
105.77 112.37 111.77
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
749 793 761
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
65.31 67.79 66.40
INTC
Intel Corp.
35.06 36.99 35.62
LVS
Las Vegas Sands Corp.
52.71 58.58 58.31
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill
399 439 414

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