1) Retail Sales missed expectations for the 2nd time in a row after beating for 3 months straight. Only +1.9% vs expectations of +2.1% BEARISH.
2) We saw a 50bp sequential slowdown in the 2-year. 3-yr looks stable. NET BEARISH.
3) Decel all around ex Food, Gas, Auto. BEARISH.
4) By category, if you sell Food (+5.8%), On-Line (+10.9%), Health/Personal Care (+7.8) or Building Supplies (+2.2%) you’re in good shape. BULLISH.
5) Everything else was mostly down (GAFO, notably). Clothing down 1.1% and now faces a very difficult +2.4% comp vs Sept of last year. BEARISH.
Here’s the link to our Macro Overview of what people should be focused on with these numbers, but are not.
LINK: The Macro Show, with Retail Sector Head Brian McGough and Darius Dale | Replay
