JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

09/15/16 07:32AM EDT

JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

“Heroism is not only in the man, but in the occasion."

- Calvin Coolidge

TRUMPMENTUM: Just a few short weeks ago, politicians, pundits and many in the media brushed off Donald Trump after a lackluster showing in the polls - at one point he was down by a whopping 15-point margin. But now, Trump has pulled himself together both in national polls and in important battleground states. New data shows Trump leading by larger margins than expected in vital states like OH, FL, NV, and AZ - states that have been tightening in recent weeks. His campaign is gaining momentum at the right time, as he’s beginning to lay out policy plans, invest in advertising in the right places, and continues to take advantage of Hillary Clinton’s shortfalls - something tells us that he wishes he had done all this before. In the next 53 days, we expect Trump to keep up the intensity and discipline, but don’t think for a second anyone is discounting the chance for a significant Trump misstep.

 

WE’RE OFF TO SEE THE WIZARD: Health has been the main topic for both campaigns this week, and each candidate has taken steps to prove they’re fit to take office. Trump spent time on the Dr. Oz show to discuss details of his health, and Clinton released updated letters from her physicians to show she’s healthy enough to continue. Though the topic is health, the underlying theme is about character. Clinton has taken fire for some time now from Republicans for her well-being, and most have brushed it off - but now that it’s become a real concern, many are interested in understanding how she handles it and how it’ll affect her future. Trump on the other hand, has put on his routine show, “releasing” his medical records on a talk show to meet basic transparency standards.

POWELL’S PARADOX : In the latest episode of the never-ending email controversy, a newly leaked tranche of emails shows former Secretary of State Colin Powell vented to his associates about Clinton’s attempts to rope him into her defense of her email practices - and he didn’t hold back either, calling Trump a “national disgrace” and Clinton “greedy and non-transformational.” Clinton’s repeated attempts to invoke Powell’s email use at the State Department has proven a persistent source of irritation for both the press and Powell’s team – and the continued revelations are alarming, digging the hole even deeper. To make matters worse, court-ordered responses regarding Clinton’s email server are now delayed due to her, “campaign’s unavailability of counsel and the press of campaign business, among other reasons.”

ECON DATA BOOSTS CLINTON: Weak income growth for the middle class has been a focus for both parties, and past presidents alike, but new data shows the largest single-year boost in median household income in nearly half a century, prompting economists to say that Democratic policies are working - that's some very welcoming news for Clinton's campaign. The jump is the first annual increase of any kind, after inflation, since the Great Recession of ‘07-‘09, and the largest recorded annual increase since the data series started in 1967. And brace yourselves for Clinton ads quoting Trump in 2004 stating, “it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than under the Republicans.” But the new income hike won’t impress Trump too much - he insists that economic statistics are rigged, and that the 5% unemployment rate is “one of the biggest hoaxes in American politics” (he’s pegged it at 42%). Either way, Clinton is primed to use the new data as a preview of her Administration.  

 

THE IMPERVIOUS IMPEACHMENT: The House Freedom Caucus plans to follow through with a vote to impeach IRS Commissioner John Koskinen...just not yet. The far-right group held a “special order” on the impeachment, which allowed lawmakers to hold court on the topic of their choice after the chamber finished business for the day, but later came to an agreement with House Judiciary Committee Chair Bob Goodlatte to postpone a vote until Koskinen testifies before the Committee next week. The impeachment effort is broadly opposed by Democrats and has split Republicans down the middle, but won’t disappear any time soon. If the deal holds true, we expect a vote sometime in the lame duck session, or even after the election, but don’t expect it to succeed.

ANOTHER “NAIL IN THE COFFIN” FOR AN OPEC FREEZE: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle dissected the current oil market fundamentals on BNN and explained why he's not expecting an OPEC production freeze any time soon. You can watch the video here.

TOP THREE DEFENSE POLICY ISSUES FOR NEXT PRESIDENT: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner hosted a call with the Honorable Dr. James Miller, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy and leading expert on defense policy, to discuss the choices facing our next president. You can listen to the replay here.

CALL INVITE: ELECTION UPDATE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Please join us for a call on Tuesday, September 20th at 2:00 PM EDT with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report to discuss his outlook on the presidential race, the state of play for House and Senate elections, and a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month. Call details can be found here.

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