PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK
STATE OF PLAY
This week, we take a look at some of the largest and most important southeastern states in this year’s presidential election - VA, NC, and FL. With 57 electoral votes at stake, these three states are shaping up to be some of the most highly contested and contentious in U.S. election history.
VIRGINIA
VA has 13 electoral votes, making up around 5% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, VA cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 68% of the time, and in the same time frame, VA supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates. The state, however, favored Democrats and Republicans equally in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012; with Democrat Barack Obama winning VA in 2008 and 2012, making it a newly-minted blue state.
VA has long been a battleground state, and is looking to repeat again this year. Hillary Clinton has maintained a large lead over Donald Trump in VA due to her large investments in advertising and staffing in the state. Clinton is also buoyed by her veep pick Tim Kaine, the former Governor and current Senator, who has a long history in local politics and boasts solid favorabilities in the state.
NORTH CAROLINA
NC has 15 electoral votes, which is 5.5% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, NC cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 65% of the time. In that same time frame, NC supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates. The state favored Republicans between 2000 and 2012 with Republican candidates winning in 2000, 2004, and 2012; with the exception of Democrat Barack Obama winning the state in 2008.
NC has been a highly competitive state, and will be so again this year. The state has garnered significant attention and resources over the past few months as each candidate has shared a lead in the polls. Trump spent the earlier part of last week in the state campaigning in the rural town of Asheville, an area that holds his core demographic, but with changing demographics, NC has been in Clinton’s crosshairs for some time now, and with her deep reservoir of resources in the state, we expect this one to be a fight to the finish.
FLORIDA
FL is the fourth largest state in the Electoral College with 29 votes, making up a whopping 11% of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, FL cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 75% of the time, and in that same time frame, FL supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates. The state, however, has favored Republicans and Democrats equally between 2000 and 2012, with Republican George W. Bush winning in 2000 and 2004 and Democrat Barack Obama winning in 2008 and 2012.
FL is characteristically the nation’s largest swing state, and it looks as if it will to live up to that reputation this year. With polls showing a statistical tie, the outcome will depend on whether Trump can motivate enough voters to the polls, or if Clinton’s more methodical campaign - relying on data and analytics to identify and coordinate supporters - will overcome the lack of excitement for her candidacy. One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a hot one down there in the sunshine state.
