“Forgive your enemies, but never forget their names."
- John F. Kennedy
HILLARYCARE: Hillary Clinton and her team may have made a massive error not disclosing her health issues - we’ll wait and see if it proves to be catastrophic or not. Clinton’s health has been controversially highlighted by Donald Trump and his allies for some time, and we’ve mostly brushed it off until now. It's easy to understand why the Clinton camp would want to keep this kind of news a secret given her love of the media, but they should’ve taken the necessary measures to disclose details to show some level of transparency. For now, she’s canceled her campaign trip to CA and will take some time to repair and regroup, but that’s not the worst of it - her health has now become a major vulnerability. Uncharacteristically, Trump has tread lightly on the event in an effort to avoid overplaying his hand - but don’t think for one second that this is the end of it.
BASKET OF DEPLORABLES: Clinton has found herself in hot water after she called half of Trump’s supporters “deplorable" and Republicans have seized upon the remark, arguing that it’s a slander similar to the 47% comment made by Mitt Romney in 2012 that dogged him in the final weeks of the campaign. Clinton has apologized for the barb, walked back the size of the basket, and contends it does not warrant a Romney comparison, but the damage has been done. Pouncing on the misstep, Trump and Republicans have already purchased a $2 million ad buy in OH, PA, NC, and FL. It may not be the single biggest mistake of the political season – like Trump says – but it’s up there, and it will surely resonate for some time.
COUNTING ON A COMPROMISE: President Obama met with House and Senate leaders to discuss the emerging legislative compromise that will address both the month's end deadline to fund the government and the worsening Zika crisis. The long-sought provisions to provide money to deal with Zika are likely to be added to the must-pass CR to fund the government, but Republican opposition lingers for other reasons, as congressional Republicans are likely to add provisions opposed by Democrats restricting any of the funding to go to Planned Parenthood. The Senate is expected to move their version of the CR later this week, but that doesn’t mean the House will be on board. Expect a heavy dose of negotiating to play out until month’s end.
TRUMP TRAUMA?: There’s a strong correlation between how a state votes for president and how it votes for Senate, and as we expected, Trump’s roller coaster poll numbers have drastically affected down-ballot numbers in key states. PA Senator Pat Toomey knows he’s got a Trump problem, and has kept his distance so far - he’s the only endangered incumbent Republican Senator yet to support or reject Trump. Toomey is campaigning as an independent voice that can be a check for either candidate, and is trying to find the middle ground by motivating disgruntled Republicans and Independents to vote without alienating Trump’s passionate backers. For now, Toomey and his challenger are running neck and neck - and with PA being a keystone to the Senate and presidential races this fall, we expect all eyes – and resources – to remain on the state until November 8th.
TODAY → CALL INVITE: PLATFORMS AND PLANKS | CLINTON VS TRUMP ON HEALTHCARE: Our Health Policy Sector Head, Emily Evans, and Healthcare Sector Head, Tom Tobin, are holding a call today at 1:00 PM EDT to discuss the healthcare policy positions of the two presidential candidates. Emily and Tom will also look at how the "A Better Way" initiative of House Republicans comes into play. Call details can be found here.
CALL INVITE: TOP THREE DEFENSE POLICY ISSUES FOR NEXT PRESIDENT: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is hosting a call with the Honorable Dr. James Miller, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy and leading expert on defense policy, tomorrow at 11:00 AM EDT. Call details can be found here.
CALL INVITE: ELECTION UPDATE WITH CHARLIE COOK OF THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT: Please join us for a call on Tuesday, September 20th at 2:00 PM EDT with Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report to discuss his outlook on the presidential race, the state of play for House and Senate elections, and a preview of the upcoming presidential debates later this month. Call details can be found here.
OCTOBER SURPRISE COMES THREE WEEKS EARLY: In case you missed it, Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner shared his insight on North Korea's nuclear test and its impact on the campaign and U.S. defense policy over the coming months. You can read his piece here.