PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTLOOK
STATE OF PLAY
Over the next two months, we will be highlighting key states in the presidential election by issuing scorecards, trends, notes, and other relevant information. To start, we take a deep dive into some of the most vital battleground states, the Rust Belt states.
PENNSYLVANIA
PA has 20 electoral votes, making up 7.4% of the 270 needed to win the general election – that’s a sizable number when it comes down to it.
Between 1900 and 2012, PA voted for the winning presidential candidate 76% of the time, and in that same time frame, supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates. However, between 1992 and 2012, PA has favored Democrats in every presidential election.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both won the PA primary by a sizeable margins, but in the general election race, the state is tilting in Clinton’s direction.
OHIO
OH has 18 electoral votes, making up 6.6% of the 270 needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, OH cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 93% of the time, more than any other state in the country. The state has favored Republicans and Democrats equally between 2000 and 2012, with Republican George W. Bush winning in 2000 and 2004 and Democrat Barack Obama winning in 2008 and 2012.
Though the narrowness of past races is reflected this year as well, it's not a given that OH voters will buck their recent trend and choose Clinton as the next president.
MICHIGAN
MI has 16 electoral votes, making up 6% of the 270 needed to win the general election.
Between 1900 and 2012, Michigan cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 72% of the time, supporting more Republican candidates for presidents than Democrats – though Democrat Barack Obama won the state in 2012
Clinton and running mate, Tim Kaine, have made MI a priority stop on their campaign trail – they presented an economic agenda in a MI manufacturing plant. Clinton’s recent trip and beefed up campaign activity has helped grow her lead by a substantial margin in this Rust Belt state, and she is poised to sustain that lead over the next two months.
