JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

09/09/16 07:08AM EDT

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

“National honor is the national property of the highest value.”

-        James Monroe

 

FORUM FALLOUT: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were on the receiving end of the firestorm of feedback from the Commander-in-Chief Forum, and bombs continue to fly after each candidate struck out on almost every question posed. For a pre-debate event just two months out from Election Day, much was left unanswered. Neither candidate appeared ready for one of the biggest events thus far, as both flashed the very liabilities that make voters squirm. Trump’s muddy policy proposals and repeated claims he opposed the Iraq war makes our heads spin as we try nailing down who Trump is and what he actually stands for. And sure, Clinton is scheduled to meet with her military advisory council to outline a counter ISIS strategy and military agenda, but we’re baffled by her inability to cogently set the record straight on her biggest liability. But hey, at least they know what Aleppo is.

EMAIL OUTLOOK: Clinton’s email controversy is and will remain a hot button issue with only 60 days left in the election cycle. House Democrats, who thought they were helping Clinton, may have instead hurt her after releasing a slew of emails between Clinton and former Secretary of State Colin Powell discussing the use of her personal email and devices. In the thread, Powell warned Clinton of the danger and advised her that if used for business, it could become an official record to the law. As we know, Clinton did not rely on the advice, putting herself and her veracity in the line of fire. Face it, this issue is not going away, and Clinton remains uncomfortable addressing it - but for what it's worth, House Republicans, who have continued to go after Clinton for her misuse of her email, may end up helping her by overplaying their hand yet again, as oversight hearings will take up much of Congress’ limited remaining work days.

VOTE EARLY AND OFTEN: Most Americans will cast their votes on November 8th, but not all of them. Early voting begins in some important states (OH, FL, NC) at the end of this month and up to 20 million ballots could be out. Democrats ramped up their efforts with the Obama campaign in 2008, and have continued to keep up with data operations. Republicans and Mitt Romney did well in 2012, but could never fully reach their base. Clinton has long been known for her depth of resources, and - of course - has carried that over to her data analytics operation, which includes early voting. Like other pieces of his campaign, Trump's operation is not as set in place, and his mixed relationships with state and local Republicans will be a large disadvantage - as they’re the one’s who know who cast early votes.

SENATE PLANS AHEAD: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is preparing a measure to fund the government until December 9, 2016. Yes, it's good news that Congress is devising a plan, but the patch ultimately puts unwanted pressure on a divided House Republican conference that is still at odds over the length of the spending measure or CR. Some Republicans would like a CR that stretches into next year, while others fear that a funding debate following an election that is currently leaning Democrat could lead to a budget increase. The Republican Leadership in the House is holding meetings to address party discord, but in the meantime, the Senate’s measure could arrive as early as next week.

SUMMER SAVINGS: As expected, the Senate is coming off a hugely successful summer recess, raising $42 million in August, further showing that Republican donors are focusing their efforts - and bank rolls - on retaining the Senate. The breaking of the piggy bank helps underscore what we’ve been talking about for months - donors continue to be skeptical of Trump and are becoming increasingly concerned that he will fail on November 8th. Donors are turning away from the presidential election in an effort to focus their interests on the Capitol Hill. Along with the Senate’s big summer blowout, Speaker Paul Ryan hauled in $30 million for National Republican Congressional Committee. The efforts comes on the back of Ryan’s plan to stump for and support more House and Senate members in September and into October to guarantee maximum results for Republicans on Election Day.

FOR SALE BY OWNER: Members of the far right House Freedom Caucus are looking for their biggest power grab in years, and are weighing their options to take control of the Republican Study Committee - a leading House group for conservatives - in an effort to push the House Republican Caucus further to the right. The move would throw a wrench in Republican leadership’s agenda, as they continue to battle with not only their own party divisions, but House Democrats - who are expecting more seats to swing their way each day. Republicans may not lose the House outright this term, but could face bigger problems if the aforementioned plot follows through.

GUIDE TO HITCHHIKERS ON THE LAST TRAIN (AKA YEAR END SPENDING BILLS) OUT OF WASHINGTON: Our Healthcare Policy Analyst Emily Evans shared her insight on year end budget negotiations and last chance health legislation in Congress. You can read her piece here.

CALL INVITE: TOP THREE DEFENSE POLICY ISSUES FOR NEXT PRESIDENT: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is holding a call with the Honorable Dr. James Miller, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy and leading expert on defense policy. You can find details on the call here.

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