“Liberty may be endangered by the abuse of liberty,
but also by the abuse of power.”
- James Madison
MILITARY MATTERS: Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 19 points amongst voters who are serving or who have served in the U.S. Military. Don’t get us wrong - it is a healthy lead - but the lack of policy details continues to surprise us and that was on full display at the last night. Trump goes out of his way to slam Clinton for her military adventurism and careless national security episodes, but never fully outlines his own path forward. After months of blasting Congress for overspending on defense, Trump is now leaning towards just that - a traditional Republican strategy of additional funding for a bigger Army and Marine Corps, missile defense systems, more ships and fighter jets. Trump may be making up ground in the polls, but his lack of a plan to combat ISIS, embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and scarcity of new ideas was startling. Despite her command of national security issues Clinton delivered a lackluster defense of her tenure at the State Department and continues to be bogged down by her inability to decisively field questions about her emails at State overshadowing a rather uneven performance.
TUG OF WAR: This year’s presidential race has been anything but conventional, we all know that, so we’re not entirely surprised to see a closer race than expected in a deep red state like TX, where the Dallas Morning News endorsed Clinton over Trump - recommending a Democrat for the first time in more than 75 years and nearly 20 elections. Along with TX, whose rapidly shifting demographics might tilt the historically red state more purple, AZ, another traditionally red state, is now a too-close-to-call battleground state. On the other side of the aisle, Trump has the newly-minted blue state of VA on his radar – he plans to spend $3.5 million in advertising in a state where the Clinton’s confidence reigns so supreme that it hasn’t run an ad in over a month - and pro-Clinton super PACs have canceled reserved time through the election.
HILL REPUBLICANS DRIVE DEREGULATION: Republicans are planning a final push over the next few weeks to put their imprimatur on financial regulation ahead of the election. Both the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees will hold a series of hearings and markups, with the goal of taking legislation to the floor aimed at easing regulations in the financial services industry. Even if Democrats don’t play along, Republicans are planning to put on a show - illustrating their intent if given the reins at deregulating the nation’s financial system. The potential schedule includes a Fed hearing to offer previews of changes the party might make to the central bank, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby’s bill to relax rules under the jurisdiction of the SEC, and Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling’s extensive overhaul of Dodd-Frank.
BATTLE OF THE BUG: Congress has their hands full with FY16 expiring on September 30th, but many other issues remain atop the to-do list. For instance, funding for Zika vaccines at the NIH will halt by month’s end if funding is not approved. After failing to pass a standalone bill earlier this week, the next possible opportunity to attach Zika funding to must-pass legislation is perhaps the legislative package to fund the government. Though Republicans in both the House and Senate are weighing options to approve Zika funding independently, Republicans are reluctant to let go of their attack on Planned Parenthood in the bill, which will not provide funding for contraception.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Although the polls have tightened, Clinton still retains an Electoral College edge. It all comes down to 538 presidential electors to decide whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump take office on January 20, 2017. Cook Political Report currently predicts Clinton will obtain an overwhelming majority of the Electoral College come November 8th, winning the election by over 80 electoral votes.
CALL INVITE: TOP THREE DEFENSE POLICY ISSUES FOR NEXT PRESIDENT: Our Senior Defense Policy Advisor LtGen Emo Gardner is holding a call with the Honorable Dr. James Miller, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy and leading expert on defense policy. You can find details on the call here.
