Editor's Note: Below is a new Hedgeye Guest Contributor research note written by our friend Doug Cliggott. Cliggott is a former U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse and chief investment strategist at J.P. Morgan. He is currently a lecturer in the Economics Department at UMass Amherst. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.
For what it is worth
...not much has changed in "my read" of the U.S. cycle over the summer. The profit recession looks to be firmly in place. An "NBER business cycle recession" looks to be on the way. {see yesterday's ISM data}
I'm looking forward to an update on the credit cycle when the Fed publishes the Z.1 data on September 16th.
My guess is just like the current credit and economic expansion that has been long and muted, the coming "recession" will be long and muted too -- probably measured in years, not months.
I'm still holding on to my "Look Out For Inflation" idea {yesterday's productivity & unit labor cost data} and that headline inflation readings will surprise to the upside in the U.S. during the next 6-12 months.
Even as the economy stalls.