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The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 5th of September through the 9th of September is full of critical releases and events. Here is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

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The Week Ahead - 09.02.16 Week Ahead


Cartoon of the Day: Earnings Dog

Cartoon of the Day: Earnings Dog - earnings cartoon 09.02.2016

 

Earnings continue to “beat” beaten down expectations.


Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Cliggott: What Coming Recession and Current Expansion Have In Common

Takeaway: My guess? Like the current credit and economic expansion (long and muted), the coming "recession" will be long and muted too.

Editor's Note: Below is a new Hedgeye Guest Contributor research note written by our friend Doug Cliggott. Cliggott is a former U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse and chief investment strategist at J.P. Morgan. He is currently a lecturer in the Economics Department at UMass Amherst. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Hedgeye.

 

Hedgeye Guest Contributor | Cliggott: What Coming Recession and Current Expansion Have In Common - recession cartoon 12.22.2015

For what it is worth

 

...not much has changed in "my read" of the U.S. cycle over the summer. The profit recession looks to be firmly in place. An "NBER business cycle recession" looks to be on the way. {see yesterday's ISM data}  

 

I'm looking forward to an update on the credit cycle when the Fed publishes the Z.1 data on September 16th.

 

My guess is just like the current credit and economic expansion that has been long and muted, the coming  "recession" will be long and muted too -- probably measured in years, not months.

 

I'm still holding on to my "Look Out For Inflation" idea {yesterday's productivity & unit labor cost data} and that headline inflation readings will surprise to the upside in the U.S. during the next 6-12 months.

 

Even as the economy stalls.

 


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Poll Of The Day: Which Choice Below Do You Trust The MOST?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

Poll Of The Day: Which Choice Below Do You Trust The MOST? - z poll

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Jobs Growth Migrating South for Winter

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro Analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"...From a rate of change perspective, payroll growth will continue to slow from here. 

 

The why is relatively straightforward:

 

  1. Employment growth is hostage to the law of large numbers and as the base gets bigger, an accelerating growth rate implies an ever increasing number of jobs.  On an NFP base of 145M, the numbers get unreasonable quickly (i.e. you start needing to add 700K … 900K … >1M workers net on monthly basis to maintain the growth curve).
  2. Diminished slack and a tighter labor market.  As the expansion matures and labor supply tightens, there are simply less people to hire and more competition."

CHART OF THE DAY: Jobs Growth Migrating South for Winter - CoD NFP YoY


McCullough: What One Of The World's 'Most Brilliant' Investors Told Me About Janet Yellen

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses what one of the world's most brilliant investors told him about Fed chair Janet Yellen, interest rates and Friday's Jobs Report. 

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

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