Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.
Takeaway: To hike or not to hike, that is the question all Fed officials are pondering at the moment. Let's look at the data.
"What's really changed, economically, since stocks crashed last time?" Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier today. "Dovish (not hawkish) Fed." In short, the only thing keeping stocks up at this point is bad economic data and the perennial hope that Yellen will get dovish once again.
On that front and For those of you keeping score...
- Q2 GDP: 1.1%
- July Existing Home Sales (90% of Housing): -1.6%
- GM and Ford Sales -5-8%
This is all clean cut rate hike "data," right?
It gets worse. Add another terrible economic data point to that list today with an ISM print of 49.4 in August. Quick quetsion: Is the Fed out to lunch with its hawkish outlook?
To hike or not to hike, that is the question all Fed officials are pondering at the moment.
However, With all this ugly data, one thing is certain...
Takeaway: Worse jobs print = No Rate Hike = Stocks ↑ = Bonds ↑
“Markets can handle 25 bps” (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016)– in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike) - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data.
Here's a video with my take on "What Happens To Stocks If Friday’s Jobs Report Bombs?"
Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.
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Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.
"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, if you’re part of the 10%, you have to admit we’re killing it as at least 50-60% are getting killed by cost of living. The Top 10% of US Households (by wealth distribution) own 85% of US Financial Assets.
Since the next 25% own 3% and the next 50% only own 1%, who really cares about the Fed other than us?"
The Fed is threatening to hike rates into an economic slowdown.
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