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Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities


September 1, 2016

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  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.62 1.51 1.58
SPX
S&P 500
2,162 2,189 2,170
RUT
Russell 2000
1,227 1,249 1,239
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,180 5,260 5,213
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
35.03 37.85 36.79
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,212 1,239 1,226
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,342 16,991 16,887
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,406 10,699 10,592
VIX
Volatility Index
11.55 14.47 13.42
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.99 96.46 96.01
EURUSD
Euro
1.11 1.13 1.11
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
98.99 103.78 103.43
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
44.09 47.25 44.70
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.55 2.99 2.89
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,301 1,356 1,311
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.02 2.12 2.07
AAPL
Apple Inc.
105.21 110.00 106.10
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
752 779 769
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
64.81 67.78 67.50
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.90 36.11 35.89
COST
Costco Wholesale
157 165 162
CRM
salesforce.com.
74.60 79.62 79.42

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


495/500 SP500 companies have reported an aggregate (non-GAAP) y/y EPS decline of -4.1%...

Client Talking Points

UK

Doesn’t take much of a “growth scare” (1 data point) to get bond yields up – 10yr Gilt +6bps to 0.70% and GBP/USD +0.8% to the top-end of it’s immediate-term risk range on a UK PMI print of 53.3 for AUG vs. 48.2 (we'd fade the macro move).

Oil

Awful end to the month for pretty much everything commodities but both the CRB Index and WTI are signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold at 179 and $44.09, respectively. Good luck with your Fed Hike Powerball tickets tomorrow.

USA

“Markets can handle 25 bps” (heard in DEC 2015 and AUG 2016)– in other news SP500 closed down -0.12% in AUG after having 7 down days in the last 9 on rate hike fears; can markets handle another hike into a slow-down? Perversely, best case for stocks/bonds is a slightly worse jobs print (no hike)  - gotta love super #LateCycle labor data.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/31/16 43% 7% 8% 16% 20% 6%
9/1/16 42% 8% 8% 16% 20% 6%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/31/16 43% 21% 24% 48% 61% 18%
9/1/16 42% 24% 24% 48% 61% 18%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

On the other side of the USD expectation, Gold (GLD) lost -1.5% w/w. Again we still like UUP and GLD as a basket against other centrally-planned currency regimes elsewhere.

TLT

Long Bonds (TLT), which has been on Investing Ideas since August 4th, 2014, finished the week -0.25%. We continue to believe that growth is the main catalyst for the curve amidst all the central planning noise. Slower growth gets discounted in a flatter curve so even if rates are hiked into a late cycle slow-down, the yield curve pancakes (the long-end of the yield curve fall and the short-end goes up). 

UUP

Strength in the U.S. dollar, with renewed rate hike expectations back in the mix over the last few weeks, gave a good boost to U.S. Dollar (UUP) which finished +1.1% on the week. The bid-yield of December Federal funds futures has ticked 10 bps higher in August to 0.55% to close out the week.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up app.hedgeye.com/insights/53498… via @KeithMcCullough #Fed #Yellen pic.twitter.com/a9Y4GVArak

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Show me a guy who's afraid to look bad, and I'll show you a guy you can beat every time.”

–Lou Brock

STAT OF THE DAY

Mark Trumbo leads the MLB in HR's with 40.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%

The Macro Show with Keith McCullough Replay | September 1, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.

 

 

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, if you’re part of the 10%, you have to admit we’re killing it as at least 50-60% are getting killed by cost of living. The Top 10% of US Households (by wealth distribution) own 85% of US Financial Assets.

 

Since the next 25% own 3% and the next 50% only own 1%, who really cares about the Fed other than us?"

 

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Why Most Americans Are FED Up - 09.01.16 EL Chart


Back To School

“I’d like to get a degree. You ever see the movie ‘Back To School’? I’ll go back with my kids.”

-Derek Jeter

 

Love ya, Captain Clutch. And I double-love the idea of getting an education. But there’s no way I’m going back to school with my kids. I have 4 of them (love them too!). But the end of the summer is the beginning of this man’s vacation.

 

Today is Day 1 of Back To School in Westport, CT. Godspeed to all the teachers out there; especially those who are employed to teach linear establishment economics. Kids have Google now. Eventually, they’re gonna getcha!

 

One thing I’d like to see schools teach is why the distribution of income in America looks nothing like a bell-curve. My man Mandelbrot nailed this well before it went mainstream. “In economics, one classic Power Law was discovered by Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto a century ago. It describes the distribution of income in the upper reaches of society.”

 

Back To School - Fed Up cartoon 03.22.2016

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

I don’t want to give you the impression I’m living large like the Clintons or Trump but I think I’m in the Top 10%. I don’t dislike that. And with 4 educations to pay for and 3 weddings (I have 3 girls), I’m not volunteering to pay more taxes either.

 

As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day, if you’re part of the 10%, you have to admit we’re killing it as at least 50-60% are getting killed by cost of living. The Top 10% of US Households (by wealth distribution) own 85% of US Financial Assets.

 

Since the next 25% own 3% and the next 50% only own 1%, who really cares about the Fed other than us?

 

No. I’m not going to wax philosophically on what’s a “fair” distribution. Life isn’t fair. And taxes suck. So get up every morning and do your best to help whoever you can, without judging everyone by how much money they make.

 

Reality is that most people in our profession are going to make less money if the Fed tightens into a slow-down again. Since most of our asset inflation is held in Dollars, ramping the USD to new 5 year highs would simply deflate assets levered to “cheap” Dollars.

 

Macro markets get #Deflation Risk. Assets that are tethered to Down Dollar, Down Rates got clocked on both an absolute and relative basis in the month of August. The last 2 Augusts (2015 and 2016) have sucked for most public financial asset owners too.

 

But what about the “consumer”? Shouldn’t crashing Oil, Copper, and Corn prices be good for them?

 

  1. In the very short-term, it doesn’t move the needle.
  2. In the intermediate-term, maybe and maybe not.
  3. In the long-run, we’re all dead anyway.

 

I borrowed that last truthful (but crude) statement from Keynes obviously. But the entire concept that the WTI kind of crude collapsing again (-15% from $52 back to $44) is the next panacea for the US stock market is one mother of a stretch.

 

*Hint: the US stock market desperately needs higher Energy stocks and an “earnings have bottomed” narrative.

 

As Oil started crashing at a faster rate in AUG of last year, did the US consumer break-out to the upside? No. Actually, plenty of US Retailers crashed from their cycle highs of JUL-AUG 2015. How about now? Is the consumer ripping to the upside?

 

  1. Last night, Costco (COST) reported an AUG same-store-sales result of 0%
  2. Look at the “back to school” results from Abercrombie (ANF) which crashed this week
  3. Don’t tell me that’s because “no one shops at ANF” – who doesn’t shop at Costco?

 

Keith, you idiot, everyone only shops at Amazon (AMZN) now. Yep. Hadn’t heard that one liner before. Thanks for the update. Oh, and a little trivia for you in return – AMZN has about $60B of the $4.6 TRILLION in total US Retail Sales.

 

I’d love to see what percentage of the Bottom 30% of Americans (by wealth distribution) has and/or can afford an Amazon Prime membership. Ever see Fedex guys ripping around the hood leaving diapers on porches? C’mon.

 

Poor people do shop at the “Dollar Stores.” So while we need to go Ex-Energy, Ex-Costco, Ex-Earnings, Ex-RateHike narrative to just “buy the consumer”, we should also ex-out Dollar Tree (DLTR) getting slammed from $98 to $82 in AUG as well.

 

Forget who is in what percent of this country. We’re all humans. We all need a degree in real-world economics before it’s too late.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now (with intermediate-term TREND research views in brackets):

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.51-1.62% (bearish)

SPX 2162-2189 (bullish)
RUT 1 (neutral)

NASDAQ 5180-5260 (bullish)

XOP 35.03-37.85 (neutral)

RMZ 1 (bullish)

Nikkei 161 (bearish)

DAX 109 (bearish)

VIX 11.55-14.47 (bullish)
USD 93.99-96.46 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.11--1.13 (bearish)
YEN 98.99-103.78 (bullish)
Oil (WTI) 44.09-47.25 (bearish)

Nat Gas 2.55-2.99 (bullish)

Gold 1 (bullish)
Copper 2.02-2.12 (bearish)

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Back To School - 09.01.16 EL Chart


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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