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'I Hate To Remind Long Bond Bears About This But...'

Takeaway: Does Wall Street need the data to worsen, from here, to really get paid?

I guess, provided that you’re always fading the Fed’s forecasts, you can make money as a Long Bond Bull for longer too.

 

If you’re still keeping score, it’s hawkish (DEC), dovish (MAR), hawkish (MAY), dovish (JUN), hawkish (AUG). That’s right. You go girl! Janet has had 5 policy pivots in 7 months – and she’s one bad jobs report away from her 6th in 8.

 

Totally cool. Totally manageable. As long as GDP stays around 1%, 90% of Housing doesn’t slow more than -1.6% year-over-year, and Consumer Confidence doesn’t fall much from 4-month lows, right? Or do we need the data to worsen, from here, to really get paid?

 

The 10yr Treasury yield ramped right back to the top-end of my immediate-term 1.50-1.62% risk range, but now what? I hate to remind Long Bond Bears about this, but the last hike into a slow-down (the hawkish pivot in DEC) was THE catalyst for both Deflation’s Dominoes and rates to crash (and the Fed to go back to dovish again)

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 


CHART OF THE DAY: Fed-Induced Hawkish Hyperventilation

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more.

 

"... The Fed has “clearly seen improvements for the last 2 months?” Or were those the politically prepared remarks pre the SP500 (you-ge indicator!) going down for 5 of the last 6 trading days and US Equity Volatility (VIX) ramping +20.4% in a week?"

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Fed-Induced Hawkish Hyperventilation - 08.29.16 chart


REPLAY! This Week On HedgeyeTV

Our deep bench of analysts take to HedgeyeTV every weekday to update subscribers on Hedgeye's high conviction stock ideas and evolving macro trends. Whether it's on The Macro ShowReal-Time Alerts Live or other exclusive live events, HedgeyeTV is always chock full of insight.

 

Below is a taste of the most recent week in HedgeyeTV. (Like what you see? Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.)

 

Enjoy!   

 

 

1. McCullough: How I Built My Wealth Without Huge Drawdowns (8/26/2016)

 

 

In this candid excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough walks through his own process and history of how he approaches risk managing volatile global markets. “I’m not trying to wax philosophically,” says McCullough. “I’m just telling you there’s a huge difference in volatility adjusted returns, and building your wealth without huge drawdowns.” He’s joined by Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale who offers additional perspective on the subject. 

 

2. Taylor: Heat Rising In ‘Historic’ Trump vs. Clinton Slugfest (8/26/2016)

 

 

Hedgeye Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor walks through some of the key factors and developments in the fiery 2016 Election battle between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

 

3. The Big Joke: Animated Cartoon Nails Squirrely Fed (8/25/2016)

 

 

In this excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why Fed policy is a joke (with a little help from our incomparable cartoonist Bob Rich). 

 

4. McCullough: Here's What Happens If The Fed Raises Rates (8/25/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains what will happen to bond, stock and commodity markets if the Fed raises interest rates. 

 

5. McCullough: ‘Don’t Short Balls Underwater’ (8/24/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares some practical investing advice he learned early in his career.

 

6. REPLAY: About Everything | Q&A with Neil Howe - Credit Cards Lose Their Charge (8/24/2016)

 

 

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the future of the credit card industry. Howe breaks down the key takeaways and explains the broader implications for investors.

 

Click here to access the associated About Everything slides.

Click here to read Howe’s associated About Everything piece.

 

7. McMonigle: Sell the OPEC Oil Production Freeze Nonsense (8/24/16) 

 

 

Does the OPEC rumormongering have you confused? Hedgeye Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle sifts through the rumors and speculation on The Macro Show today. He provides clarity on what's really going on and what likely lies ahead for oil prices.

 

8. McCullough: The Yield Spread Doesn't Lie - People Do (8/23/2016)

 

 

In this excerpt from the Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why the coming quarter will be "the best time to short the Financials." 

 

9. Does Stock Market Volume Still Matter? (8/22/2016)

 

 

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough responds to a subscriber's question about whether trading volume is still relevant. 

 

Click here to subscribe for free to our YouTube channel.


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McCullough: How I Built My Wealth Without Huge Drawdowns

In this candid excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough walks through his own process and history of how he approaches risk managing volatile global markets. “I’m not trying to wax philosophically,” says McCullough. “I’m just telling you there’s a huge difference in volatility adjusted returns, and building your wealth without huge drawdowns.” He’s joined by Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale who offers additional perspective on the subject. 

 

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Insulted (8/26/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Jackson Hole cartoon 08.26.2016 


Enough with all the talk of Jackson Hole already.

 

2. Fed-Induced Hyperventilation (8/25/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Jackson Hole cartoon 08.25.2016

 

The epidemic that's sweeping over Wall Street has been officially dubbed by physicians, "Fed-Induced Hyperventilation."

 

3. Freezing? (8/24/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - OPEC cartoon 08.24.2016

 

Oil prices popped yesterday on rumors that Iran might support an OPEC oil production freeze. "In our view it is still too soon for any change in OPEC production policy," Hedgeye Potomac Senior Energy analyst Joe McMonigle wrote yesterday. Shortly thereafter, a spokesman for the Iranian Oil ministry said the country hadn't even decided whether to attend OPEC talks next month. Oil prices quickly faded and are down almost -3% today. 

 

4. "Rarified" (8/23/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - No volume cartoon 08.23.2016

 

Total equity market volume continues to tumble on up days and rip on down days.

 

5. The Fed Game (8/22/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed cartoon 08.22.2016

 

Year-to-date Fed policy:

 

Hawkish DEC

Dovish MAR

Hawkish MAY

Dovish JUNE

Hawkish JULY

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


Cartoon of the Day: Insulted

Cartoon of the Day: Insulted - Jackson Hole cartoon 08.26.2016

 

Enough with all the talk of Jackson Hole already.

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


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