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Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

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Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 8 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 8 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 8 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 8 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 8 26

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - commodities 8 26


Poll of the Day: Which Movie Below Best Captures Janet Yellen's Fed Tenure?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

 

 


August 26, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.62 1.49 1.58
SPX
S&P 500
2,168 2,193 2,172
RUT
Russell 2000
1,225 1,250 1,240
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,170 5,270 5,212
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
34.91 37.93 37.17
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,212 1,245 1,226
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,290 16,843 16,555
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,436 10,730 10,529
VIX
Volatility Index
11.15 14.31 13.63
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.90 95.90 94.74
EURUSD
Euro
1.10 1.13 1.12
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.31 102.40 100.59
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
43.95 49.51 47.33
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.51 2.92 2.88
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,319 1,366 1,324
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.07 2.17 2.08
AAPL
Apple Inc.
107.27 110.29 107.57
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
749 770 759
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
63.26 66.21 66.07
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.12 35.67 35.09
BAC
Bank Of America
14.82 15.63 15.53
EXPE
Expedia Inc.
110 117 112


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.46%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.35%

C’mon guys – she’s a dove; unless she shocks you today, buyem! (stocks, bonds, gold):

Client Talking Points

Japan

Unfortunately the “there’s no alternative to stocks” narrative hasn’t held this yr in China, Europe, or Japan – Nikkei down another -1.2% overnight taking its crash from the 2015 high to -21.7% (Japanese Gov Pension fund just lost $52B being long stocks in Q2, with the BOJ buying them!).

Italy

“rates are at all-time lows” (because growth is slowing), so “buy stocks” (Ex-Italy), where recession probability rising is reality; MIB Index leads losers this am in light European trading, -0.6%, taking its crash from the 2015 high to -30.9%.

USA

USA! USA! Has the Goldilocks Medal this yr because growth isn’t as slow as it is in Japan/Italy? Is what it is; for an immediate-term TRADE off the low-end of my current 2168-2193 risk range I’m in the buy/cover “stocks” (and bonds… and platinum… and Gold, etc.) camp; 10yr Yield has immediate-term downside to 1.49%.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/25/16 50% 3% 5% 14% 18% 10%
8/26/16 50% 3% 5% 14% 18% 10%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/25/16 50% 9% 15% 42% 55% 30%
8/26/16 50% 9% 15% 42% 55% 30%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

See update on TLT below.

TLT

#Stagnation. With that being said there were small but marginal Euro tailwinds against a U.S. retail sales report and PPI release that was likely dovish on the margin (USD -~20bps on Friday and -~60bps on the week). 

 

In line with our #EuropeSlowing theme, Q2 preliminary GDP slowed across the Eurozone to +0.3% vs. +0.6% in the prior quarter and +1.6% Y/Y for Q2 which was flat on a rate of change basis from Q1.

Looking at specific country results:

  • German (0.4% vs 0.7% sequentially) GDP accelerated to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.6% which was probably a minor Euro FX tailwind
  • Italian GDP came in at +0.7% Y/Y which was a deceleration from +1.0% in Q1
  • Greece GDP accelerated to contraction again, printing a measly -0.1% Y/Y from -1.3% in Q1

The Southern Eurozone states continue to implode.

UUP

Recall that a strong retail sales report for June, driven by a positive trend in goods consumption, was a large contributor to our GDP revision for Q2. The headline number, for June, was up +0.6% sequentially with the sequential acceleration in the control group accelerating +7.2% (annualized). #Deflation  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

NEW VIDEO The Big Joke: Animated Cartoon Nails Squirrely #Fed app.hedgeye.com/insights/53364… @KeithMcCullough #JacksonHole pic.twitter.com/1jYpUCjZHC

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“You find that you have peace of mind and can enjoy yourself, get more sleep, and rest when you know that it was a one hundred percent effort that you gave-win or lose.

-Gordie Howe 

STAT OF THE DAY

Ken Griffey Jr. (HOF) hit 630 HR's and batted .284 over his 22 year career.


The Macro Show with Keith McCullough Replay | August 26, 2016

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.

 


CHART OF THE DAY: Don't Break Out The Bubbly Just Yet

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... As can be seen in the Chart of the Day below, Forward Capex Plans as measured by a composite of the Fed Regional Surveys remains on its one-way street to lower-lows, suggesting the negative trend in investment spending is unlikely to ebb in the coming quarter(s)."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: Don't Break Out The Bubbly Just Yet - Capex Plans CoD2


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