NATIONAL POLITICS | By Amy Walter, August 24, 2016
Of Electoral Maps, Emails and Pivots
With just under three months to go in election 2016, some things, specifically the Electoral College math, look much clearer. Clinton not only has a decided lead, but she has a deeper, wider path to 270 than Trump does. Then there’s the stuff that makes the election look less stable - the constant campaign staff shuffling by Trump and the never-ending drip, drip, drip of Clinton’s emails.
Let’s start with the more clear-cut stuff first.
The decision this week for the Clinton campaign to announce an $80M ad buy in just seven states, eight if you include the decision to target Omaha’s 2nd CD - North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa - suggests that they see these states as the most competitive. Notably absent from this list are traditional battleground states like Virginia, Colorado, and Wisconsin. Recent polling has shown Clinton up by the high single or double digits in those three states.
Notably the Trump campaign - despite its previous disdain and skepticism of TV advertising - has begun to run campaign ads in four of those same states - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
In other words, both sides see the same states as the ones that will determine the election. So, let’s plug these assumptions into my favorite Electoral College app - 270towin.com. First, plug the seven states (and NE-02) as undecided. Then give Clinton the traditionally blue states - as well as Virginia and Colorado - and give Trump the traditionally Republican states. That scenario means Clinton starts at 249 and Trump begins at 190.
According to the 270towin.com calculator, there are 13 different paths for Clinton to the magic 270 number. She can win or lose any of those seven toss up states and still hit the threshold. Trump, meanwhile, has only 4 paths to 270. And, all require winning BOTH Florida and Pennsylvania. The current Real Clear Politics Average of polls has Clinton up by nine points in Pennsylvania and 4.5 points in Florida. Unless and until Trump can turn those numbers around, there is no way he can win the election.
Now the murky - which is actually less murky than you think.
At this point in a “normal” campaign, there is talk about the dreaded “October Surprise” which is an event or series of events that can change the contours and direction of the campaign. Or maybe it’s a new piece of information about the candidate that alters the perception of that candidate or pulls them off their carefully crafted message.
What’s unique about this campaign, however, is that the stuff (specifically bad stuff) that is most likely to come out between now and Election Day won’t be “surprising,” but will instead reaffirm existing perceptions about these candidates. More suspect emails from Clinton and more bad behavior from Trump won’t be a “surprise” to voters who already view both Clinton and Trump more negatively than positively.
Moreover, the biggest problems for both candidates are the ones they have brought onto themselves. A surprise is something that is unexpected. Like the economy falling-out between now and November, or Obama’s approval rating suddenly dropping by 20 points. That’s not likely, but would be surprising. Instead, it’s Clinton’s sloppy handling of the email server and the porous firewalls between the State Department and the Clinton Foundation that are going to dog her through November. And, beyond. Those problems are totally self-inflicted. And, while there is no evidence of a quid pro quo or anything explicitly illegal, it not only smells bad - it looks woefully out of touch. At a time when voters are more frustrated and disillusioned than ever by “politics as usual” and the symbiosis between the powerful and the rich, the State Department/Clinton Foundation nexus looks at best outdated and at worst a proof point that she will continue to support the discredited and disliked status quo. The expectations of transparency and accountability have changed. She - and those around her - have not.
Moreover, there is concern among some Democrats that a lack of enthusiasm among younger voters as well as African-American voters could blunt not only Clinton’s margin of victory, but also prevent a wave from washing out down-ballot GOPers. One smart Democratic strategist I spoke with recently was surprised at the cynicism and apathy he saw among African-American voters in recent focus groups. They don’t like Trump, but they also weren’t committed to showing up to vote. Among younger voters, Johnson and Stein are getting a significant percent of the vote that has traditionally gone to Democrats.
Trump, of course, has problems of his own making. His inability to control himself, his message or his itchy Twitter finger are the biggest single impediments to his ability to win this contest. As I’ve written many times before, there is never going to be a Trump “pivot.” What you see is what you get. And, for a majority of Americans, they don’t like what they see. The latest pollster.com chart shows Trump’s favorable/unfavorable rating at 35%/ 63% or -28. Clinton is at 42%/56% or -14.
Even if Trump were able to show a more restrained side, it’s not clear that voters would believe it. We are getting to point now where opinions of these candidates are getting baked in and are tougher to change. At a focus group of swing female voters I attended the other week there was a lot of frustration expressed about the not-ideal choices in front of them. Yet, while they didn’t trust Hillary Clinton, they were far more worried about Trump’s lack of self-control. As one woman in the Phoenix group remarked, “I don’t trust Hillary Clinton on fighting terrorism, but Trump would get us into World War III.”
Preeminent pollster Peter Hart has followed one voter in particular for the last year and sees her as a solid gauge of this race. Jen Howard lives in suburban Colorado. She is a “conservative, middle-class Republican in her mid-forties who works in accounting. She has voted for the past four GOP presidential nominees.” In early 2016 she told Hart that “Bernie Sanders was her new favorite. Donald Trump, who had been in the race for about six months at that point, appealed to her because of his position on immigration. Throughout this election cycle, immigration has been her driving concern.” And yet, today she says won’t vote for Trump. She tells Hart that she thinks that Trump “is acting like an idiot; he is crazy.” Her advice: “Shut up; be quiet.” Moreover, while she agrees with Trump on immigration, she has “many reservations about his position and considers ‘the wall’ a ridiculous approach.” While she doesn’t like Clinton: “I don’t trust her; she is not approachable,” she sees Clinton “as competent and someone who will keep U.S. relationships with other countries stable.” It’s not just Jen who Trump lost, but he lost her husband too. While he was an early supporter of the businessman, he “does not plan to vote for the Republican nominee, whom he considers a bully.”
If voters, especially those that are predisposed to like you, describe you as an “idiot” and a “bully” this close to the election, those views are not likely to change. Moreover, Trump’s decision to double, triple and quadruple down on a strategy of appealing almost exclusively to white voters, has already made his pathway to the presidency narrow. And, any softening of his deportation policies isn’t going to be enough to make up for his previous statements about Mexican “rapists” and his continued focus on building a wall. The wall itself, for many minority voters, is as problematic as a deportation policy. It says, pretty clearly, we don’t want you here.
At the end of the day, we have two candidates with well-defined weaknesses who are going to be battling those weaknesses for the foreseeable future. Clinton has less control over how her bad stuff gets out. The State Department and Judicial Watch, not her campaign will be releasing the latest trove of previously unknown emails. But, she’s aided by the fact that Trump has proven unable - or unwilling - to stay focused on making her weaknesses the centerpiece of his strategy. Just when it seems he’s honed in on a message, he veers off into another tweet storm or speech that distracts from her and puts the spotlight back on him. Moreover, with a huge fundraising advantage, Clinton and her allies will be able to keep more of Trump’s bad stuff in front of voters - regardless of what is happening in the news cycle.