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Capital Brief: A Crack In Clinton's Foundation?

Takeaway: Foundation Damage; Immigration Transformation; Shoring Up The Base

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief: A Crack In Clinton's Foundation?  - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

"In the time of darkest defeat, victory may be nearest."

-William McKinley

FOUNDATION DAMAGE

The never-ending saga continues with a new batch of emails showing Hillary Clinton and her lieutenants consistently coordinated with State Department officials and Clinton Foundation aides to reward major donors with access to the powers-that-be at State. The situation poses an extraordinary risk for ethics challenges if elected president, though Clinton continues to brush off the release as politically motivated. We don’t expect the mess to go away without answers, and the longer she lets it go, the more damage is done.

 

Democrats may think they have November in the bag, but they shouldn’t underestimate the fickleness of the American voter. Donald Trump and Republicans, who grab much of the media’s attention, are happy to let this be the gift that keeps on giving.  

IMMIGRATION TRANSFORMATION

Trump’s bid for presidency was built on a promise to build a "great, great wall" along the Mexican border, have them pay for it, and deport 11 million undocumented immigrants from U.S. soil - all while portraying Mexican immigrants, as criminals and rapists. Trump is now scheduled to hold his second meeting with his new Hispanic advisory board, leaving little doubt that he will shift his longstanding views, and his hard-nosed supporters are embracing it so far, calling it a more feasible approach to deportation without undermining his mainstay position.

 

His softening tone may be an appeal to minorities and moderates, but the message hasn’t resonated just yet. It’s still hard to see them throwing their weight behind Trump after the past 14 months of heated rhetoric.

SHORING UP THE BASE?

Trump may be massaging his message, but he hasn’t adjusted his campaign strategy just yet - he’s spending valuable time in states that will not provide him the votes he needs on Election Day. After canceling campaign stops in CO, NV, and OR, Trump stumped in TX and MS – two reliably red states that support him and the past nine Republican nominees. There’s money to be made in these states, but at a time when he needs to extend his reach to everyone, he’s focusing on shoring up the base.

 

Trump craves high energy rallies and feeds off the enthusiasm, but the aforementioned stops will not put him over the top in the Electoral College and propel him into the White House. Once Labor Day hits, expect to see his camp refocus on battleground states like OH, PA, NC, and FL…but it may prove to be too late.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

McCullough: Here’s What Happens If The Fed Raises Rates

McCullough: Here’s What Happens If The Fed Raises Rates - HETV macroshow thumb

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show earlier today, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains what will happen to bond, stock and commodity markets if the Fed raises interest rates.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

3 Key Discussion Points Ahead Of Our Institutional Call On Pandora | $P

3 Key Discussion Points Ahead Of Our Institutional Call On Pandora | $P - Little pig cartoon

Pandora (P) is currently on our Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban's Best Ideas List as a long. He is hosting a call today at 1pm ET to update his thesis and dissect the company's latest quarterly report. Here are the key discussion points.


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Nonsense

Takeaway: The Fed nonsense is just starting to heat up.

Nonsense - Fed birdbrain cartoon 06.15.2015

 

There's a curious rhyme to Fed policy that's worth noting. Year-to-date, the Fed has pivoted from...

 

  1. Hawkish, December
  2. Dovish, March
  3. Hawkish, May
  4. Dovish, June
  5. Hawkish, July

 

Even more interesting is the effervescent hopes and dreams of most regional Fed governors about raising interest rates. That manifests most foolishly in San Francisco Fed head John Williams who forsaw as many as five rate hikes in 2016.

 

Nonsense - costanza

It doesn't end there...

 

Here's the latest nonsense from Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan which reaffirms our #LowerForLonger call on interest rates:

 

8/25/16: Dallas Fed head Kaplan sees rate hike in the "not too distant future."

4/16/16Dallas Fed head Kaplan sees rate hike in the "not too distant future."

 

Nonsense - fed kaplan

Unfortunately...

 

Rather than studying the basic history of economic cycles, Fed officials are digging in their heels and clenching onto their dogmatic economic ideas. Central bankers from all over the world are dogpiling into Jackson Hole for this week's Fed-sponsored economic symposium. The theme of the meeting is "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks For The Future."

 

In other words, if you're hoping the central planning will stop, don't hold your breath.


Poll of the Day: Where Would You LEAST Like To Wake Up & Find Yourself Today?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.


Another Buying Opportunity...

Takeaway: Own Long Bonds, Gold and Platinum? Get long #GrowthSlowing.

There have been plenty “buying opportunities” (why is it that they never call them that in the Long Bond or Gold?) this year. Gold was one of them yesterday as we tapped the low-end of my immediate-term risk range = $1319-1365.

 

Anything that’s not hawkish from Janet should be bearish for Bond Yields; bullish for Gold and Platinum. (Note: Gold and Platinum are up 25% and 22% year-to-date respectively.)

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 

 

Want more? Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video below explain why investors should be long Gold.

 


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