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Poll of the Day: Where Would You LEAST Like To Wake Up & Find Yourself Today?

Takeaway: What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.


Another Buying Opportunity...

Takeaway: Own Long Bonds, Gold and Platinum? Get long #GrowthSlowing.

There have been plenty “buying opportunities” (why is it that they never call them that in the Long Bond or Gold?) this year. Gold was one of them yesterday as we tapped the low-end of my immediate-term risk range = $1319-1365.

 

Anything that’s not hawkish from Janet should be bearish for Bond Yields; bullish for Gold and Platinum. (Note: Gold and Platinum are up 25% and 22% year-to-date respectively.)

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more. 

 

Want more? Watch Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in the video below explain why investors should be long Gold.

 


August 25, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.59 1.49 1.56
SPX
S&P 500
2,168 2,190 2,175
RUT
Russell 2000
1,221 1,249 1,237
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,170 5,265 5,217
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
34.65 37.90 37.10
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,211 1,246 1,221
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,302 16,908 16,597
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,407 10,790 10,622
VIX
Volatility Index
11.15 14.33 13.45
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.80 96.00 94.74
EURUSD
Euro
1.10 1.13 1.13
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.11 102.45 100.47
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
43.09 49.07 46.77
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.50 2.88 2.84
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,319 1,362 1,329
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.07 2.17 2.08
AAPL
Apple Inc.
107.12 109.99 108.03
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
749 775 757
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
63.26 66.19 65.95
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.11 35.68 35.15
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Tech Corp.
70.60 76.70 75.89
HPQ
Hewlett-Packard Co.
13.45 14.59 14.40


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


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INVITE | P Best Idea Long | Call TODAY at 1pm EDT

Takeaway: We will host a conference call TODAY at 1pm EDT to present P as a new Best Idea Long. Dialing Instructions below.

INVITE | P Best Idea Long | Call TODAY at 1pm EDT - P   Best Idea Long Image

KEY POINTS OF DISCUSSION

  1. AD MODEL IS SO POORLY MONETIZED THAT: P’s ad-supported model hasn't produce any real operating leverage/cash flow to date, and is now more expensive to run post Web IV.  P’s 2Q results reinforce our long-standing view that revenue growth is tied to its salesforce growth, meaning the ad model may never get off the ground. That said...
  2. VERY LITTLE SUB CONVERSION GOES A LONG WAY: The sub model is far more lucrative from both a revenue and margin perspective.  The stark difference b/w the two models means the expanded sub launch is a massive growth opportunity, particularly in the initial years, maybe more depending on how aggressively P commits to it.
  3. P = CALL OPTION: Basically a hedged bet: mgmt either executes on its sub expansion (new deals + revenue) or is forced to entertain acquisition offers if can’t do so, which should buoy the stock at a minimum.  The former offers more upside, but the stock should end up much higher either way by this time next year, if not sooner.

 

 

Participating Dialing Instructions

Toll Free:

Toll:

UK: 0

Confirmation Number: 13643964

Subscriber: CLICK HERE to access event details.


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 8 25

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities 8 25


On TRADE oversold signals, why not buy/cover stocks, bonds, gold...ahead of Yellen tomorrow?

Client Talking Points

Europe

After signaling immediate-term TRADE overbought last week, both the EuroStoxx50 (-1.1%) and German DAX (-1.3%) are signaling immediate-term TRADE oversold this morning; we remain bearish on both Japanese and European Equities, but surviving the bear-chop means you have to trade it, both ways.

Gold

There have been plenty “buying opportunities” (why is it that they never call them that in the Long Bond or Gold?) this year Gold – yesterday was one of them as we tapped the low-end of my immediate-term risk range = $1319-1365; anything that’s not hawkish from Janet should be bearish for Bond Yields; bullish for Gold and Platinum.

Healthcare

Does Hillary scare you? She does have the ability to scare this sector! Sector ETF (XLV) signaled immediate-term TRADE oversold yesterday too; fundamentally, we haven’t liked it all year long (Tom Tobin is bearish)… but from a policy risk perspective, our Healthcare Policy analyst, Emily Evans, thinks Big Pharma’s lobby trumps Hillary rhetoric, in the end.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/24/16 52% 3% 5% 12% 16% 12%
8/25/16 50% 3% 5% 14% 18% 10%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/24/16 52% 9% 15% 36% 48% 36%
8/25/16 50% 9% 15% 42% 55% 30%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

See update on TLT below.

TLT

#Stagnation. With that being said there were small but marginal Euro tailwinds against a U.S. retail sales report and PPI release that was likely dovish on the margin (USD -~20bps on Friday and -~60bps on the week). 

 

In line with our #EuropeSlowing theme, Q2 preliminary GDP slowed across the Eurozone to +0.3% vs. +0.6% in the prior quarter and +1.6% Y/Y for Q2 which was flat on a rate of change basis from Q1.

Looking at specific country results:

  • German (0.4% vs 0.7% sequentially) GDP accelerated to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.6% which was probably a minor Euro FX tailwind
  • Italian GDP came in at +0.7% Y/Y which was a deceleration from +1.0% in Q1
  • Greece GDP accelerated to contraction again, printing a measly -0.1% Y/Y from -1.3% in Q1

The Southern Eurozone states continue to implode.

UUP

Recall that a strong retail sales report for June, driven by a positive trend in goods consumption, was a large contributor to our GDP revision for Q2. The headline number, for June, was up +0.6% sequentially with the sequential acceleration in the control group accelerating +7.2% (annualized). #Deflation  

Three for the Road

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning.”

– Benjamin Franklin

STAT OF THE DAY

David Ortiz is batting .322 in his final year in the MLB.


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