Live Q&A Wednesday at 12:00PM ET | Credit Cards Lose Their Charge

08/24/16 07:10AM EDT

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What's the outlook for the credit card industry? When you look at the central players up close--focusing, say, on the latest revenue and earnings numbers for the key network providers (V and MA)--the outlook appears pretty bright.

But when you step back and take a broader view, several large warning lights appear. Let's start upstream, where growing price competition for consumers and retailers is forcing acquiring banks to cut back on fees, thereby pinching margins. Tellingly, the most "premium" brand of all (AXP) is now in real trouble: Hip hop and HBO stars are no longer bragging about their titanium black card. Then let's focus on today's frozen credit cycle, which is depriving the acquirers of the "revolver" interest income they usually enjoy as the recovery matures. Finally, let's look ahead to the seemingly unstoppable growth in debit cards, prepaid cards, and ACH as a share of all noncash payments. Or further ahead to the even faster growth in mobile payments.

What about opportunities abroad? Sorry, that window is closing as well. Indeed, there is growing worry about threats from abroad. If there is one specter that wakes up credit card executives in the middle of the night, it is the image of millions of 30-year-old Americans tapping on WeChat (the English-language version of "Weixin," the single most used mobile app in China). Looking ahead, some analysts already prefer to talk not of the credit card industry but rather of the "payments" industry.

Pushing all of these challenges is a strong and adverse generational tide. Quite simply, as you go younger than the 1970 birthyear, you will increasingly find Americans who don't like credit cards, don't like banks, and in fact don't really care for much of the financial services industry. A revolution is brewing.

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