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Poll of the Day: An Intoxicated Monkey Takes On Janet Yellen & Jose Canseco

Takeaway: Who will you choose? An intoxicated monkey versus Steve Liesman, Mark Zandi, Janet Yellen & Jose Canseco.


RTA LIVE: August 23, 2016


 


Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - equity markets 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - sector performance 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - volume 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - rates and spreads 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - currencies 8 23

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Tuesday - commodities 8 23


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

August 23, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.60 1.48 1.55
SPX
S&P 500
2,165 2,192 2,182
RUT
Russell 2000
1,216 1,245 1,239
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,157 5,263 5,244
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,316 16,795 16,598
DAX
German DAX Composite
10,380 10,800 10,494
VIX
Volatility Index
11.09 14.49 12.27
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
93.92 96.25 94.50
EURUSD
Euro
1.10 1.13 1.13
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
99.20 102.35 100.32
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
41.11 49.80 47.41
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.50 2.75 2.70
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,329 1,365 1,343
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.12 2.18 2.15
AAPL
Apple Inc.
107.01 109.98 108.51
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
750 780 759
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
92.93 97.24 95.26
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
63.07 66.25 65.80
INTC
Intel Corp.
34.12 35.95 35.36
P
Pandora Media Inc.
13.01 13.91 13.68
XOP
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore
34.53 37.95 36.88
RMZ
MSCI US REIT
1,216 1,255 1,226

Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


This Country Makes Our Global Equity Long List

Takeaway: A new addition to our (very short) list of countries added to the Global Equity long side: Taiwan.

Yep. Long Taiwan (TAIEX Index or EWT). We added that to our Global Equity LONG list while I was away last week. Standard Hedgeye GIP Model process reasoning as Taiwan moves into what we call Quad 1 (or 2) in the back half of 2016. Not many countries are…

 

Here's the brief breakdown of Taiwan, as it looks in our GIP (Growth, Inflation, Policy) model via Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale: 

 

  • Growth: generally trending higher across the preponderance of key high-frequency data
  • Inflation: generally trending higher across the preponderance of key high-frequency data
  • Policy: getting easier at the margins

 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


479 of 500 S&P Companies have reported an aggregate (non-GAAP) EPS decline for Q2 of -3.7% y/y…

Client Talking Points

UST 10YR

Oh the fun and games the “next frontier” of central planning must be to muse about… yesterday’s smack-down (in yields) came on rumors Janet is going to move the goal posts on her “inflation target” to 4% AFTER Fischer said we’re good to go at 2%, lol.

Oil

Talk about a smack-down; Oil down over 3% yesterday and not showing any green yet this am (sub $47) with an immediate-term TRADE risk range of $41.11-49.80; big problem here is that Oil’s Volatility (OVX) won’t break-down through 30 #WickedChop.

Taiwan

Yep. Long Taiwan (TAIEX Index or EWT). We added that to our Global Equity LONG list while I was away last week. Standard Hedgeye GIP Model process reasoning as Taiwan moves into what we call Quad 1 (or 2) in the back half of 2016. Not many countries are…

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/22/16 51% 3% 3% 11% 19% 13%
8/23/16 49% 4% 6% 12% 17% 12%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
8/22/16 51% 9% 9% 33% 58% 39%
8/23/16 49% 12% 18% 36% 52% 36%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

See update on TLT below.

TLT

#Stagnation. With that being said there were small but marginal Euro tailwinds against a U.S. retail sales report and PPI release that was likely dovish on the margin (USD -~20bps on Friday and -~60bps on the week). 

 

In line with our #EuropeSlowing theme, Q2 preliminary GDP slowed across the Eurozone to +0.3% vs. +0.6% in the prior quarter and +1.6% Y/Y for Q2 which was flat on a rate of change basis from Q1.

Looking at specific country results:

  • German (0.4% vs 0.7% sequentially) GDP accelerated to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.6% which was probably a minor Euro FX tailwind
  • Italian GDP came in at +0.7% Y/Y which was a deceleration from +1.0% in Q1
  • Greece GDP accelerated to contraction again, printing a measly -0.1% Y/Y from -1.3% in Q1

The Southern Eurozone states continue to implode.

UUP

Recall that a strong retail sales report for June, driven by a positive trend in goods consumption, was a large contributor to our GDP revision for Q2. The headline number, for June, was up +0.6% sequentially with the sequential acceleration in the control group accelerating +7.2% (annualized). #Deflation  

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

How Slowing Chinese #Housing Demand Is Affecting Global #RealEstate Mkts app.hedgeye.com/insights/53258… @KeithMcCullough pic.twitter.com/Jm5XyxyKfR

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“Strength and growth come only through continuous effort and struggle.”

-Napoleon Hill

STAT OF THE DAY

Cam Newton has 160 career TD's in the NFL.


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