CLIENT TALKING POINTS
UST 10YR
Oh the fun and games the “next frontier” of central planning must be to muse about… yesterday’s smack-down (in yields) came on rumors Janet is going to move the goal posts on her “inflation target” to 4% AFTER Fischer said we’re good to go at 2%, lol.
Oil
Talk about a smack-down; Oil down over 3% yesterday and not showing any green yet this am (sub $47) with an immediate-term TRADE risk range of $41.11-49.80; big problem here is that Oil’s Volatility (OVX) won’t break-down through 30 #WickedChop.
Taiwan
Yep. Long Taiwan (TAIEX Index or EWT). We added that to our Global Equity LONG list while I was away last week. Standard Hedgeye GIP Model process reasoning as Taiwan moves into what we call Quad 1 (or 2) in the back half of 2016. Not many countries are…
TOP LONG IDEAS
GLD
See update on TLT below.
TLT
#Stagnation. With that being said there were small but marginal Euro tailwinds against a U.S. retail sales report and PPI release that was likely dovish on the margin (USD -~20bps on Friday and -~60bps on the week).
In line with our #EuropeSlowing theme, Q2 preliminary GDP slowed across the Eurozone to +0.3% vs. +0.6% in the prior quarter and +1.6% Y/Y for Q2 which was flat on a rate of change basis from Q1.
Looking at specific country results:
- German (0.4% vs 0.7% sequentially) GDP accelerated to +1.8% Y/Y from +1.6% which was probably a minor Euro FX tailwind
- Italian GDP came in at +0.7% Y/Y which was a deceleration from +1.0% in Q1
- Greece GDP accelerated to contraction again, printing a measly -0.1% Y/Y from -1.3% in Q1
The Southern Eurozone states continue to implode.
UUP
Recall that a strong retail sales report for June, driven by a positive trend in goods consumption, was a large contributor to our GDP revision for Q2. The headline number, for June, was up +0.6% sequentially with the sequential acceleration in the control group accelerating +7.2% (annualized). #Deflation
Asset Allocation
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22/16 | 51% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 19% | 13% |
| 8/23/16 | 49% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 17% | 12% |
Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure
| CASH | US EQUITIES | INTL EQUITIES | COMMODITIES | FIXED INCOME | INTL CURRENCIES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22/16 | 51% | 9% | 9% | 33% | 58% | 39% |
| 8/23/16 | 49% | 12% | 18% | 36% | 52% | 36% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
How Slowing Chinese #Housing Demand Is Affecting Global #RealEstate Mkts app.hedgeye.com/insights/53258… @KeithMcCullough pic.twitter.com/Jm5XyxyKfR
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Strength and growth come only through continuous effort and struggle.”
-Napoleon Hill
STAT OF THE DAY
Cam Newton has 160 career TD's in the NFL.