“History and experience tell us that moral progress comes not in comfortable
and complacent times, but out of trial and confusion.”
- Gerald R. Ford
TO BE DETERMINED...: For 434 days Donald Trump has been consistent with his immigration message, and his spotlight on immigrants has been a mainstay on the campaign trail - from building a wall along the Mexican border to his call for banning Muslims from traveling to the U.S.. In an appeal to Hispanics, moderate Republicans and Independents, Trump and his campaign organized a meeting with a newly-established Hispanic advisory board with the aim of unveiling of a new immigration plan that offers solutions beyond deportation. A major speech on the topic has been delayed and the Trump camp says “TBD” for a shift on the issue, but call it like you see it - something has changed and he may be modifying the terms on which he’s run for so long.
HILLARY’S HOPE FOR CHANGE: With Hillary Clinton’s growing lead and clearer path forward, the Clinton camp is beginning to refine policy plans - and Republicans are already expressing aversion to them. Though rumors are swirling that Clinton, Speaker Paul Ryan and wannabe Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are open-minded to a package to build on infrastructure spending and reform corporate taxes, nothing is set in stone. Some Republicans say they could go along with it, while others keep their distance. But remember - even if Clinton wins the White House, and the Senate turns Democrat, the House is likely to stay in Republican hands, and is likely to become more conservative.
REPUBLICANS ON THE RISE: Trump has watched his poll standings in battleground states plummet in the past few weeks, but he can point to at least one glimmer of hope for a possible turnaround – Republicans are gaining ground in voter registration in FL, PA, NC, and IA. Sure, Clinton is ahead by an average of six points nationally, and Trump is losing ground with millennials, women, and minorities, but registration increases in eastern and midwestern battleground states are welcome news for Trump, who is coming off his first controversy-free week since the convention. The RNC has done a lot of the legwork on voter registration, and they’re stepping in to fill other voids within the Trump orbit as he’s almost completely ignored a ground operation instead relying on earned media and, of course, his rowdy rallies to win over supporters.
FUNDRAISING FRENZY: Last month, Trump looked to be even with Clinton’s fundraising efforts (mostly), but August isn’t shaping up to be as positive. To make matters worse, of the cash that was raised, he’s barely spent any of it, forcing the RNC to step up and step in (see above). The lack of staff, dearth of advertising, and frugal spending is worrisome for the RNC and can only get better. To add to that, Clinton is a campaigning machine – she’s recently reserved over $80 million in advertising for the fall season, while Trump has fallen short on future ad buys. Trump and his camp should be deeply concerned about the inequity and needs to prioritize outreach to pro-Trump groups, because without additional resources, Trump’s chances in November will not improve.
HENSARLING PREPARES: House Financial Services Committee Chair Jeb Hensarling is chomping at the bit to return to work next month as he plans to introduce his highly anticipated overhaul of the Dodd-Frank Act. Much of the plan has already drawn criticism from the big banks and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, and the bill has almost no chance of passing this year, but the measure still carries weight as it’s likely to serve as a template for Republican financial reform if Trump wins the White House. Trump hasn't endorsed the measure…yet, but does plan to reform Dodd-Frank and work with House Republicans on the subject.
NEW HOME HEALTH PAYMENT SYSTEM TO BE DISCUSSED AT CMS: Our Healthcare Policy Analyst Emily Evans highlighted a CMS call this afternoon that will serve as an open door forum on Home Health, Hospice and Durable Medical Equipment. You can find more information on the call here.
AET TAKES ITS BALL AND GOES HOME; GOVERNMENT SAYS SEE YA!: Our Healthcare Policy Analyst Emily Evans shared her insight on Aetna’s recent exit of many Affordable Care Act exchanges. You can read her piece here.
UNAPPETIZING TURKEY: In case you missed it, our Geopolitical Analyst Dan Christman shared his insight on last month's attempted military coup in Turkey and the worrisome aftermath. You can read his piece here.