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PREMIUM INSIGHT

Why Target Shares Have 20% Downside From Here

In this excerpt from The Macro Show on Friday, Hedgeye Retail analyst Alec Richards explains why Target shares have significant downside from today’s levels.


This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons

Our cartoonist Bob Rich captures the tenor on Wall Street every weekday in Hedgeye's widely-acclaimed Cartoon of the Day. Below are his five latest cartoons. We hope you enjoy his humor and wit as filtered through Hedgeye's market insights. (Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.)

 

Enjoy!

 

1. Projections (8/19/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Fed bunny cartoon 08.19.2016 


Fed projections are all rainbows, puppy dogs and ... bunnies. 

 

2. All Aboard? (8/18/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Stocks Titanic cartoon 08.18.2016

 

Did you buy the all-time highs in U.S. equity markets?

 

3. Yield (8/17/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Euro Zone cartoon 08.17.2016

 

In the past year, other than the U.K.'s FTSE, European equity market drawdowns range from the German DAX's -3% to -29% for Italy's FTSE MIB.

 

4. The Financial Market Olympics (8/16/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - Financial olympics cartoon 08.16.2016

  1. Total equity market volume was down -7% versus its 1-month average yesterday
  2. Gold is up +25% year-to-date
  3. Global growth continues to slow
  4. The best efforts of central bankers have failed to stimulate global economic growth
  5. The earnings recession continues (for Q2 2016, 458/500 S&P 500 companies have reported an aggregate earnings decline of -4.1%)
  6. Oil prices continue to fall on bearish fundamentals (and pop on OPEC oil production freeze rumors)

 

5. Devalued (8/15/2016)

This Week In Hedgeye Cartoons - British currency cartoon 08.15.2016

 

The pound has lost -12.6% of it's value (against the U.S. dollar) year-to-date as U.K. growth has slowed.

 

Click here to receive our daily cartoon for free.


Cartoon of the Day: Projections

Cartoon of the Day: Projections - Fed bunny cartoon 08.19.2016

 

Fed projections are all rainbows, puppy dogs and ... bunnies.


Daily Trading Ranges

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Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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The Carnage Continues: Italian Bank Stocks Crushed (Again)

The Carnage Continues: Italian Bank Stocks Crushed (Again) - Italian bank cartoon

 

"The chief executive and former chairman of Monte dei Paschi di Siena are under investigation for alleged market manipulation and false accounting, casting a cloud over Italy’s embattled lender nearly three weeks after it agreed to a dramatic €5bn rescue package," the FT reports.

 

"It is with confidence in the judicial system and serenity about the correctness of our actions that I await the quick clarification of the situation," writes CEO Fabrizio Viola in a statement. "I cannot hide that it is emotionally difficult for me as well as for the bank, considering the enormous efforts of these past four years to restore the bank to health, to witness further negative effects from past events and other people's actions."

 

Yikes!

 

Check out the struggling Italian banks dragging down the EuroStoxx 600 Bank index, with Italian banks such as UniCredit, Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna and Banca Popolare di Milano Scarl down as much as 6%.

 

The Carnage Continues: Italian Bank Stocks Crushed (Again) - euro bank

 

The Carnage Continues: Italian Bank Stocks Crushed (Again) - euro bank 2

 

And yet, the ECB Minutes from July 21 show continued use of phrase “it [ECB] would act by using all instruments available within its mandate.” To be sure, the ECB's negative interest rate policy will continue to exacerbate existing problems in the Eurozone's banking system. 

 

Look out below!


An Open Letter To Target Management | $TGT

Takeaway: Winners find a way to win. But TGT points fingers while #failing to reinvest for growth.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Retail analyst Alexander Richards. For more information about our institutional research contact sales@hedgeye.com

 

An Open Letter To Target Management | $TGT - TARGET cartoon large

 

The obvious place to start the conversation on TGT would be on the numbers, and the company gave us plenty of ammo to poke holes in the print this morning. But we think the far greater concern for the long-term health of this company is the lack of definable plan or any clear insight by the management team as to what actually caused the worst quarterly comp number since the data breach and subsequent guide down for 2H16.

 

We heard a lot of excuses, everything from Apple products losing their cache, to deflation, e-commerce pressure, and soft Rx traffic. Which all may be legitimate in their own right – but we have a NEWSFLASH for Cornell and team...

 

This is something we like to call RETAIL. The environment/consumer isn’t going to throw anyone a bone, especially at the tail end of a seven year economic expansion. In this sport, only losers point fingers. Stocks that make investors money on the long side find a way to win. Target is doing the opposite.

 

All in, we think this is all very characteristic of a management team playing defense instead of offense. Need further evidence? How about 2 consecutive quarters of earnings beats generated by cost cuts and share buy-backs with the stock at or near all-time highs. We’d argue that the team in Minneapolis would be better served missing expectations and taking down numbers by 2x the rate we saw today in order to build a superior platform from which to grow.

 

That may sound harsh, but after running through the numbers and sitting through the 60-minute conference call, we were still left asking what actually happened? In the absence of a clearly articulated answer from the TGT C-Suite. Meanwhile, we think Target is underinvesting in its business at a time when the Retail industry is becoming more competitive.

 

We expect Target to continue to lose market share.


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