Last month's attempted military coup in Turkey continues to reverberate globally. The coup itself was, of course, a failure; but the response by Turkish president Erdogan has set the Turkish Republic on an extremely worrisome course, both domestically and diplomatically.
- Domestically, Erdogan's harsh and extensive purge of those he believes responsible -- not just the military but teachers, judges, public servants and the media - - has reinforced long-standing fears of the president's move to full-up authoritarian rule. As a result, relations with the U.S. and Europe are at 40 years lows.
- Compounding the domestic crackdown is Erdogan's new bromance with Vladimir Putin. The Russian president was first to call Erdogan as the coup was unfolding to offer his support, beating other western leaders, including President Obama. (Some have speculated, not unreasonably, that Russian intelligence had advanced warning of the coup; by sending this information to Erdogan, it gave the embattled Turkish president precious minutes to escape the approaching Turkish special ops forces intending to capture him.)
- Particularly in the wake of the Erdogan apology to Putin in June for the shoot-down last year of a Russian fighter-bomber, Putin, as always, saw a geo-political opportunity. He knew any chance of Turkey's admission to the EU was zero; he also anticipated an unraveling of the migrant deal hammered out by Turkey with the EU in March. What better time to step in?
Economically, Erdogan is going all-out to shore up a faltering economy. Besides the boost Putin offers by restoring tourist travel and continuing planning on the proposed "Turkish Stream" natural gas pipeline, Erdogan knows he needs western investment. In light of his sweeping political purge, this will not be an easy sell.
- Turkey's economy is not only slowing (current growth projections now have Turkey growing barely more than 3% for the rest of this year, slightly less for 2017), but Turkey is also running significant current account deficits; foreign investment is thus badly needed to keep the Turkish lira from falling further and accelerating an already worrisome inflation rate.
- As a result, Erdogan personally met with foreign business leaders in Turkey following the coup attempt, assuring them that, despite dust-ups with Turkey in their capitals, "business is business;" he intends to repeat this theme with U.S. business leaders in September when he travels to New York for the UN General Assembly meeting.
Events since late June affecting Russia, Europe and Turkey have intriguing historical roots. From the time of Catherine the Great, Russia has had clear strategic ambitions, not just for access to the Black Sea, but for influence over transit through the Dardanelles; and since 1949, when NATO was formed, Joseph Stalin and his successors have coveted a disruption of the Atlantic Alliance and Europe's efforts to integrate. With the Brexit vote in June and now the Erdogan-Putin bromance, Russia has taken a few steps closer to achieving historic strategic goals.
