prev

Is Investor Complacency Rising?

Takeaway: US market short-interest has been cut 13% since February and net long positioning is near a multi-year high pointing to investor exuberance.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from an institutional research note written by Hedgeye Macro analyst Ben Ryan. For more information about our institutional research contact sales@hedgeye.com

 

Is Investor Complacency Rising? - trust my gut cartoon 10.14.2015  2

 

We speak of S&P 500 net non-commercial futures and options positioning regularly. Index + e-mini positioning has been cut the last couple of weeks, but it’s still pinned near a multi-year high.

 

Is Investor Complacency Rising? - sp pos

 

Along with futures and options positioning, total U.S. market short-interest has been cut 13% since February and the CBOE skew index indicates a market that is positioned much less cautiously than it was in the summer of 2014, at least in volatility terms.


Is The Healthcare Bubble About To Burst?

In this brief excerpt from The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and Demography Sector Head Neil Howe respond to a subscriber’s question about whether the healthcare sector is a bubble that’s about to pop.

 


PREMIUM INSIGHT

Gloom & Doom? No. But Short Healthcare On #ACATaper

Gloom & Doom? No. But Short Healthcare On #ACATaper - stormy

Pick your poison. Whether we’re talking about Fed rate hikes, leverage, slowing utilization or job openings, all spell trouble for Healthcare.


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

INSTANT INSIGHT | An Update On Spain, The ECB & #EuropeImploding

Takeaway: Spanish political drama leaves investors in the dark. Meanwhile, we suggest investors continue to fade the easy yet ineffectual ECB policy.

INSTANT INSIGHT | An Update On Spain, The ECB & #EuropeImploding - Spain cartoon 06.30.2016

And the political pain continues in Spain.

 

The latest update is acting PM Rajoy has once again convoluted the road to forming a government, this time going against his word to evaluate a series of reform demands from the centrist Ciudadanos party (which if agreed to by Rajoy would increase the likelihood of Ciudadanos joining Rajoy’s party to form a coalition government). Will this political indecision continue, leaving investors in the dark? 

 

You bet!

 

It has been for some time. Take a look at the Spanish IBEX's performance below.

 

INSTANT INSIGHT | An Update On Spain, The ECB & #EuropeImploding - spain bubble peak

 

On a related note, ECB Minutes from July 21 show continued use of phrase “it [ECB] would act by using all instruments available within its mandate.” We continue to fade the ECB policy stance that QE will fix the region’s underlying growth and inflation ails. Our short bias on the EUR/USD remains intact.

#EUROPEIMPLODING.

 

***Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note written by our Macro team and sent to subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 8 18

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 8 18

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 8 18

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 8 18

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 8 18

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities 8 18


CHART OF THE DAY: A Deep Dive Into Emerging Markets

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale. Click here to learn more.

 

"For brevity’s sake, however, we’ll focus on one quick and dirty way to accomplish this, which is by regressing dollar-denominated equity market returns off of their respective YTD lows vs. the delta in composite PMI readings off of their respective YTD lows.

 

Does the market improvement match the economic improvement? If not, what is the probability the latter catches up to the former?

 

Regressing the aforementioned factors across the 16 emerging market economies we could find with available data yielded a positive correlation of +0.87. Even excluding outliers Brazil and Russia yielded a positively-sloping regression line with a correlation of +0.35 (see: Chart of the Day below for visualization)."

 

CHART OF THE DAY: A Deep Dive Into Emerging Markets - 8 18 16 Chart of the Day


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

next